Match Analysis: Metz vs Angers – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 3:15 PM UTC
• Location: Stade Saint Symphorien, Metz, France

Game Overview

In this Ligue 1 match, Metz hosts Angers at Stade Saint Symphorien. Metz is currently struggling near the relegation zone, positioned 18th without any points from 3 matches. Angers, ranked 8th, have a considerably stronger recent form. Historically, Metz have had moderate success at home against Angers with 5 wins in the last 10 home clashes, most commonly securing a 1-0 victory.

Key Factors to Consider

• Metz has underperformed this season with 3 straight losses and a -5 goal difference, scoring on average 0.8 goals against Angers. Angers exhibit more solid form with an average of 1.6 goals per match against Metz, supporting their mid-table position.
• In the last 10 home meetings, Metz won 5 times, Angers 3, with 2 draws. The 1-0 result in favor of Metz at home has been the most frequent outcome. Both teams have a history of tight contests, but Metz holds a slight home advantage.
• Metz is missing key forwards U. Mboula, H. Diallo, M. Mbaye, S. Sane, and H. Abdelli, negatively impacting their attacking options. Angers' injury status is not specifically reported, suggesting a healthier squad.
• The matchup is at Metz's home stadium, which traditionally benefits Metz, but their current poor form and injury crisis counterbalance this advantage. Weather and pitch conditions are not indicated, presumed neutral.
• Metz faces high pressure due to their poor start and the necessity to secure points to avoid relegation, likely increasing defensive caution and effort. Angers, in a safer league position, might approach the game with confidence but slightly less desperation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Angers: 215, Metz: 129, Draw: 220	Metz to win or draw (double chance)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Angers: -0.25 -118, Metz: +25 -102	Metz +0.25 (Asian Handicap)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.25 -122, Under: 2.25 102	Under 2.25 goals	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Metz 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Metz's poor form, significant injuries, and Angers' superior position and recent scoring form, Angers is favored to at least avoid defeat. However, Metz's home record against Angers and motivation to rebound suggests a close match, with a likely draw or narrow Angers win.

Predicted Score: 1-1

Match Analysis: Paris FC vs Metz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-31
• Time: 3:15 PM UTC
• Location: Stade Jean-Bouin, Paris, France

Game Overview

Paris FC, ranked 17th, host Metz, ranked 18th, in a tightly contested Ligue 1 fixture. Both teams have yet to earn points after two matches, making this game crucial to avoid early relegation zone pressure. The match promises a balanced battle given their similar league standings and recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both Paris FC and Metz started the 2025/2026 Ligue 1 season poorly, with each team recording 0 wins and 2 losses. Paris FC has shown slightly better defensive organization, while Metz's attack, including players like M. Simon and I. Kebbal, has scored sporadically in recent fixtures. Neither team has yet found consistent form.
• In recent clashes, Metz has a slight edge, winning key encounters including a 3-1 win over Paris FC earlier in 2025 Ligue 2 season. Historical H2H data suggests a tightly contested matchup, with Metz typically performing well against Paris FC, though the current Ligue 1 status adds new dynamics.
• No specific injury details are provided in the available data. Given the early season timing, both sides are expected to field near full-strength squads, but late transfers or undisclosed minor injuries could affect lineups.
• The match being at Stade Jean-Bouin gives Paris FC home advantage. External factors such as weather or pitch conditions are not indicated as significant. The psychological pressure of both teams having no points might influence cautious tactics.
• Both sides have strong motivation to claim their first win and avoid a precarious position near the bottom of Ligue 1 standings. Survival mindset may lead to a balanced and tightly fought game, slightly favoring the home team due to crowd support.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Paris FC: -118, Metz: 325, Draw: 265	Paris FC win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Paris FC -0.5: -118, Metz +50: -102	Paris FC -0.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -105, Under 2.5: -115	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Paris FC 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The match is predicted to be a narrow victory for Paris FC. Their home advantage combined with slightly better defensive solidity under pressure gives them a slight edge over Metz in this pivotal fixture.

Predicted Score: 1-0

Match Analysis: Lyon vs Metz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-23
• Time: 7:05 PM UTC
• Location: Lyon home stadium

Game Overview

Lyon hosts Metz in this Ligue 1 fixture on August 23, 2025. Lyon has dominated historically and recently, with stronger home performances and a better overall scoring and defensive record. Metz has struggled against Lyon, especially away, but they have shown some resilience in recent matches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lyon has won 4 of their last 5 matches with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, reflecting solid but not impermeable defense. Metz won 1, drew 2, and lost 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 2.2 goals but conceding 1.4, indicating offensive spirit but defensive vulnerabilities.
• Since 2003, Lyon has played 26 matches against Metz, winning 19, drawing 3, and losing 4, scoring 60 goals and conceding 18. Recent stats show Lyon also averaging 2.41 goals scored and only 0.68 conceded per game against Metz, who have scored 0.68 and conceded 2.41. Lyon's dominance is clear both home and overall.
• No specific injury updates available from the current data for either team. Typical lineup expected with no major absences reported.
• Match is at Lyon’s home ground, giving the home advantage. No explicit weather or other environmental factors currently known to affect play.
• Lyon, aiming to consolidate a strong position early in the season, has higher motivation to perform at a high level at home. Metz, facing a tough away challenge, may play more defensively but have motivation to secure at least a draw or narrow result.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -265, away: 625, draw: 400	Lyon win	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	Lyon -1.25: -120, Metz +1.25: 100	Lyon -1.25	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 3: -115, Under 3: -105	Under 3 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lyon 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lyon is strongly favored to win this match given historical dominance, home advantage, and recent form. Predicted a Lyon victory with a moderate goal margin.

Predicted Score: 2-0

Match Analysis: Metz vs Strasbourg – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-17
• Time: 3:15 PM UTC
• Location: Stade Saint Symphorien, Metz, France

Game Overview

The Ligue 1 opener features Metz hosting Strasbourg at Stade Saint Symphorien. Metz currently ranks 5th in the league while Strasbourg sits at 17th, indicating a performance gap favoring Metz. Both teams have moderately effective offenses with Metz having scored 8 goals and Strasbourg 6 in their last 5 matches. Historically, their clashes have been tight and low-scoring affairs.

Key Factors to Consider

• Metz demonstrated strong home form in the previous season, losing just one of 19 home games and keeping seven clean sheets. Strasbourg’s recent form includes mixed results and lower goal scoring, with only one of their last eight away league matches producing more than two goals.
• In their last 11 meetings, Strasbourg has edged Metz with 5 wins to Metz's 3, and 3 draws. The last two home meetings were low-scoring and competitive, typically under 2.5 goals.
• No specific injury information is available from the current data sources, suggesting no major absences announced for either team ahead of the fixture.
• The match timing in mid-August early in the season might limit fatigue and squad rotation. Metz's home stadium environment is a known advantage. No weather or other disruptive external factors reported.
• As a season opener, both teams are motivated to start strong, but Metz’s better league standing and history of strong home results lend them additional confidence. Strasbourg will aim to upset but may play cautiously given recent low scoring away patterns.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Metz: 2.23, Strasbourg: 1.29, Draw: 2.47	Strasbourg to win	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Metz: -0.25 at -114, Strasbourg: +25 at -106	Strasbourg +0.25	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -113, Under 2.5: -107	Under 2.5 goals	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Strasbourg 15%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A closely contested match with a slight advantage to Metz at home. A low-scoring game is expected, with Metz likely to secure a narrow win or possibly a draw if Strasbourg manages a resilient defensive effort.

Predicted Score: 1-1

Match Analysis: Stade de Reims vs Metz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-29
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: Stade Auguste Delaune, Reims, France

Game Overview

This match is part of the Ligue 1 relegation/promotion playoffs. Stade de Reims hosts Metz, following a 1-1 draw in their previous encounter.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both teams have shown strong determination in their previous matches, with Reims having an edge due to home advantage.
• Their recent match ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a competitive balance between the teams.
• No significant injuries reported for either team.
• Weather conditions are expected to be favorable for both teams.
• Both teams are highly motivated as the outcome directly affects their league status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Stade de Reims: 125, Metz: 225, Draw: 205	Stade de Reims to win	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Stade de Reims: -0.25, Metz: 25	Stade de Reims to cover the spread	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: 2.25, under: 2.25	Under 2.25 goals	★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Stade de Reims -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Stade de Reims is likely to win, given their home advantage and slight edge in recent form.

Predicted Score: 1-0 to Stade de Reims

Match Analysis: Metz vs Stade de Reims – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-21
• Time: 6:00 PM UTC
• Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz

Game Overview

The Ligue 1 Promotion/Relegation Playoff first leg between Metz and Stade de Reims is set to be a tightly contested match. Metz, recently relegated from Ligue 1, are pushing for immediate promotion back after finishing four points shy of direct promotion. Stade de Reims, who have been in Ligue 1 for seven consecutive seasons, narrowly avoided direct relegation but now face this playoff after slipping in form toward the season's end.

Key Factors to Consider

• Metz showed resilience in the playoffs semi-finals and are motivated for a return to Ligue 1. They have averaged around 0.9 goals scored per match and concede 0.8, indicating a balanced but modest offensive output. Reims have had a volatile season — starting strong around European spots but dropping to 16th place due to a poor run late in the campaign. They average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 goals conceded per match.
• In recent encounters, outcomes have been evenly split with approximately 20% Metz wins, 40% draws, and 40% Reims wins. Defensive solidity has been an issue, with nearly half of their recent matches featuring at least one side failing to score.
• No specific injury updates are provided from the available data, suggesting both teams may have their main squads available for selection.
• The match being played at Metz’s home ground, Stade Saint-Symphorien, provides Metz with a home advantage in this crucial first leg of the playoff. The atmosphere and pitch familiarity could influence the tightly balanced contest.
• Metz are highly motivated to bounce straight back to Ligue 1 after relegation, playing with the confidence of a successful semi-final playoff. Reims face the pressure of maintaining their Ligue 1 status after a disappointing finish to their season, adding psychological weight to their performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Metz: 1.45, Stade de Reims: 1.8, Draw: 2.15	Metz	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Metz: -0 ( -125 ), Stade de Reims: +0 ( +105 )	Metz to win or draw	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.25: -125, Under 2.25: +105	Under 2.25 goals	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Metz 27%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 23%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Metz at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Metz's home advantage, recent playoff form, and balanced team performance, they are slight favorites. However, Reims’ experience in Ligue 1 and stronger offensive averages suggest a close, low-margin game is likely, possibly ending in a draw or narrow Metz win.

Predicted Score: 1-1