Match Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known for his volume striking and aggression, faces the younger and durable Melquizael Costa, who emphasizes defense and counter-striking. Both fighters enter with a motivation for a four-fight win streak, making this contest highly competitive and significant for their career trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

• Julian Erosa brings a record of 31-12-0 with a high volume of significant strikes at 6.40 per minute and a 49% strike accuracy, but he absorbs a high rate at 6.21 strikes per minute. Melquizael Costa holds a 23-7-0 record with lower strike output at 3.86 per minute but better defense, absorbing just 2.72 strikes per minute and defending 52% of strikes. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy around 49%.
• There is no recorded previous bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, marking this fight as their first direct encounter.
• No reported injuries to either fighter have been indicated close to the fight date, suggesting both are expected to enter at full health.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, reducing travel and acclimatization concerns. No significant external distractions or controversies have been reported impacting either fighter’s preparedness.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a 4-fight win streak, which would boost their UFC rankings and career momentum. Erosa, the veteran, aims to demonstrate his finishing prowess, while Costa looks to leverage his defensive skills and youth to outlast Erosa.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Julian Erosa: +142, Melquizael Costa: -170	Melquizael Costa	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Julian Erosa: 3.5 -110, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 -120	Melquizael Costa -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 124, Under: 2.5 -160	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Melquizael Costa -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the defensive durability and lower absorption rate of strikes by Melquizael Costa combined with his ability to defend strikes effectively, Costa has a statistical edge despite Erosa's higher volume and finishing reputation. Costa’s youth and defense likely make him the favorite, but Erosa’s pressure and experience could yield a competitive fight. The prediction favors Melquizael Costa to win by decision or late stoppage.

Predicted Score: Melquizael Costa wins via decision (3-0 rounds)

Match Analysis: Melquizael Costa vs Christian Rodriguez – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City

Game Overview

Christian Rodriguez faces Melquizael Costa in a featherweight bout at UFC on ESPN 64. Both fighters are looking to make a statement with their unique styles: Rodriguez is known for his decision-based wins, while Costa boasts impressive submission skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Christian Rodriguez has a strong record with 12 wins and 2 losses, while Melquizael Costa has 22 wins and 7 losses, highlighting his experience. Rodriguez's recent victory over Austin Bashi and Costa's submission win over Andre Fili are notable performances.
• There is no previous head-to-head match between these fighters, making this a first-time encounter.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter as of now.
• The event's setting at Arena CDMX in Mexico City might influence the energy and crowd support, potentially favoring neither fighter due to international participation.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure a win for different reasons— Rodriguez to strengthen his unbeaten streak by decision, and Costa to showcase his submission prowess.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Christian Rodriguez: -170, Melquizael Costa: 142	Christian Rodriguez	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Christian Rodriguez: -3.5 120, Melquizael Costa: 3.5 -165	Melquizael Costa +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -195, Under: 2.5 150	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

Christian Rodriguez is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish for Rodriguez

Match Analysis: Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-02-22
• Time: 11:00 PM UTC
• Location: Seattle

Game Overview

Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa are set to face off in a highly anticipated featherweight bout. Both fighters have shown versatility and the ability to engage in entertaining fights. Fili has been a staple in the UFC, known for his inconsistency but ability to put on a show, while Costa is looking to build momentum after a recent win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Andre Fili has a long history in the UFC with a record of 24-11, known for his ability to hang tough with most featherweights. Melquizael Costa, with a record of 21-7, has been inconsistent in the UFC but has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in his last fight where he staged a late rally to win.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Andre Fili and Melquizael Costa. However, Costa's training partner, Joanderson Brito, previously defeated Fili, which could provide valuable insight for Costa.
• No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of this bout.
• The fight takes place in Seattle, which might not significantly favor either fighter since both are accustomed to different environments. Costa is training in Massachusetts, which could impact his acclimation to the fight conditions.
• Costa is highly motivated, having recently renewed his UFC contract and looking to make a statement. Fili, as a veteran, is always motivated to perform well and entertain the crowd.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Andre Fili: -107, Melquizael Costa: -117	Andre Fili	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Andre Fili: 3.5 -210, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 150	Melquizael Costa	★★☆☆☆ 40%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -210, Under: 2.5 170	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Andre Fili via decision

Predicted Score: Andre Fili wins by decision