Match Analysis: Mayra Bueno Silva vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:50 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
This bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 111 features Mayra Bueno Silva, a grappler with a 10-5-1 record and moderate striking volume, against Jacqueline Cavalcanti, an undefeated (9-1) striker with a high output striking style and superior takedown defense. Cavalcanti is on a 7-fight win streak and 4-0 in the UFC, while Silva struggles recently with a 1-3-1 record since 2023.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti demonstrates a higher striking volume (5.73 significant strikes per minute) and better strike defense (70%) compared to Mayra Bueno Silva's 3.83 strikes per minute and 51% strike defense. Silva has grappling finishing ability with 4 UFC submission wins but a lower takedown success rate and poor recent form. Cavalcanti maintains strong wrestling defense, not taken down in the UFC, and has a 73% xR% (expected win rate) versus Silva’s 41%.
- The fighters have no previous matchup history.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter at the time of analysis.
- The bout takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue for both fighters with no reported travel or environmental issues impacting performance.
- Jacqueline Cavalcanti is motivated by a significant winning streak and an undefeated UFC run, whereas Mayra Bueno Silva displays signs of inconsistency and fading motivation in recent outings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacqueline Cavalcanti: -278, Mayra Bueno Silva: +225 | Jacqueline Cavalcanti | ★★★★☆ 79% |
| Spread | Jacqueline Cavalcanti: -3.5 (+120), Mayra Bueno Silva: +3.5 (-165) | Jacqueline Cavalcanti -3.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -425, Under 2.5 rounds: +300 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacqueline Cavalcanti -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 160% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 160% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 53.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacqueline Cavalcanti is strongly favored to win via striking dominance and superior cardio, with particular emphasis on outpointing Silva across rounds. Silva may seek submission opportunities but is unlikely to overcome Cavalcanti's wrestling and striking volume.
Predicted Score: Jacqueline Cavalcanti wins by unanimous decision or late TKO with the fight lasting around 2 to 3 rounds