Location: Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain
Game Overview
Alavés (17th in La Liga) hosts Atlético Madrid (3rd) in a match where Atlético seeks a season sweep. Alavés aims to avoid relegation pressures, while Atlético fights for Champions League positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
Atlético has stronger offensive metrics (53 goals scored vs. Alavés' 35) and defensive stability (25 goals conceded vs. 45)
Atlético leads recent encounters, including a prior victory this season
No specific injury data provided in sources
Alavés' home advantage countered by Atlético's superior squad quality
Atlético's UCL qualification push vs. Alavés' relegation battle urgency
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Alavés: +270, Atlético: +115, Draw: +220
Atlético Madrid
High (45.8% modeled probability vs. 26.5% Alavés/27.8% draw)
Spread
Alavés +25 (-100), Atlético -0.25 (-120)
Atlético Madrid -0.25
Moderate (covers if they win outright)
Over/under
Over 2 (-120), Under 2 (+100)
Under 2 goals
Medium (defensive focus likely)
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Atlético Madrid -2%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2 20%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Madrid moneyline win (45.8% probability per predictive models) in a low-scoring affair
Sunderland (4th in Championship) hosts QPR (15th) in a crucial late-season EFL Championship clash. Earlier this season saw a 0-0 draw[2], but historical data shows Sunderland's dominance with 8 wins in 19 meetings compared to QPR's 4[3].
Key Factors to Consider
Sunderland's higher league position and home advantage contrast with QPR's mid-table consistency. Recent head-to-head shows Sunderland unbeaten in last 5 meetings (4W-1D)[5].
8-7-4 in Sunderland's favor overall, with 27 goals for Sunderland vs 20 for QPR[3]. Last meeting ended 0-0[2].
No specific injury reports available; assume full squads.
Burnley, ranking second in the Championship, hosts Millwall, who are seventh. Burnley boasts a strong home performance, while Millwall has inconsistent away results.
Key Factors to Consider
Burnley has consistently performed well both at home and away, with recent wins against strong teams. Millwall has shown resilience but mostly at home.
In their last meeting, Millwall won 1-0. Historically, Burnley and Millwall have closely matched head-to-head statistics, with Burnley winning 7 out of 19 matches and Millwall winning 6.
There are no reported key injuries from recent data that would significantly impact the match.
Neither team faces significant external pressures like weather conditions or physical exhaustion due to recent scheduling.
Burnley is highly motivated to secure a strong league position, while Millwall aims to climb higher in the standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Burnley: -160, Millwall: 460, Draw: 270
Burnley win
★★★★☆ 75%
Spread
Burnley: -0.75 -125, Millwall: 75 105
Burnley to cover
★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under
Over: 2.25 -120, Under: 2.25 100
Under 2.25 goals
★★★☆☆ 60%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Burnley -3%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 2.25 20%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Burnley is likely to win given their strong home record and overall performance in the season.