Match Analysis: North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 7:30 AM UTC
• Location: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville

Game Overview

Round 11 NRL clash between the 6th-placed Cowboys and the 8th-placed Sea Eagles. Manly makes positional changes in the forwards with Bullemor starting at prop and Jake Trbojevic at lock; Cowboys start Hess in the front row and debut Purdue at five-eighth, with Dearden moving to halfback after Taumalolo is sidelined.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cowboys sit 6th with a slightly better recent form, while Manly is 8th, having lost their last game to the Sharks. Manly’s forward rotation sees experienced players like Trbojevic shifting positions, possibly impacting cohesion. The Cowboys' backline is adjusted due to Purdue’s debut at five-eighth and Laybutt returning from injury.
• Recent meetings are competitive, with both teams displaying closely matched statistics. The Cowboys hold a slight edge in home games at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.
• Jason Taumalolo (Cowboys) remains sidelined with a calf injury, a significant loss for their forward pack. Manly is mostly full strength, with only minor interchange changes.
• Home advantage for the Cowboys is significant, especially at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. There are no major weather concerns reported for the match.
• Both teams are mid-table and eager to solidify their positions for the finals. The return of Laybutt for the Cowboys boosts morale, while Manly aims to bounce back from a recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: 118, North Queensland Cowboys: -132, Draw: 1800	North Queensland Cowboys	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Manly Warringah Sea Eagles: 1.5 -105, North Queensland Cowboys: -1.5 -125	Cowboys -1.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over: 51.5 -115, Under: 51.5 -115	Under 51.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	North Queensland Cowboys 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 51.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 51.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

The Cowboys are favored slightly based on home ground advantage, positional stability, and the Sea Eagles’ recent loss. The return of Laybutt and the debut of Purdue could be wildcards, but the Cowboys’ pack and home crowd give them a narrow edge.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 26 – Sea Eagles 18

Match Analysis: Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 5:00 AM UTC
• Location: Suncorp Stadium

Game Overview

The Dolphins are looking to extend their recent form after defeating Parramatta, while the Warriors aim for a fifth consecutive win. The match is set at Suncorp Stadium, where the Dolphins have historically performed well against the Warriors.

Key Factors to Consider

• The Warriors are on a four-game winning streak and sit second on the ladder, whereas the Dolphins are 12th but have shown resilience by beating Parramatta last week.
• The Dolphins have won two of the last four encounters at Suncorp Stadium, while the Warriors have won both their matches at the Dolphins' home venue.
• James Fisher-Harris returns for the Warriors, replacing Bunty Afoa, who is out with a knee injury. Jackson Ford is also out due to concussion.
• The Warriors have a strong recent record but face the challenge of a long road trip. The Dolphins will benefit from playing at home.
• Both teams are motivated; the Warriors to extend their winning streak and the Dolphins to climb the ladder.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dolphins: 108, Warriors: -121, Draw: 1800	Warriors	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Dolphins: -1.5 100, Warriors: 1.5 -130	Warriors +1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over: 47.5 -120, Under: 47.5 -110	Over	★★★☆☆ 52%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	New Zealand Warriors 19%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 47.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: New Zealand Warriors at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Warriors to win given their recent form and team improvements.

Predicted Score: Warriors 24, Dolphins 20