Match Analysis: Shem Rock vs Attila Korkmaz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Oktagon 71, Munich, Germany

Game Overview

Shem Rock returns to the octagon after nearly a year out due to opponents pulling out and injury, now facing Attila Korkmaz on short notice at Oktagon 71. Initially scheduled to face higher-ranked opponents, changes due to a car accident and visa issues brought Korkmaz, ranked #6 Lightweight, into the matchup. This catchweight bout at 73kg (161 lbs) is highly anticipated, with the winner likely moving into the top 5 of the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shem Rock has shown strong fighting skills but has been inactive for almost a year, which can affect timing and performance. Attila Korkmaz, a seasoned former Bellator fighter, is coming off a recent September loss but has been eager to fight and ready on short notice, suggesting good physical and mental preparedness.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Shem Rock and Attila Korkmaz, making this their first encounter.
• Shem Rock had a prior injury that contributed to his nearly year-long hiatus. There are no current reported injuries for either fighter leading into this match.
• The short-notice nature of Korkmaz stepping in last minute could impact his preparation, but his readiness and experience may offset that. The bout being at catchweight and the change in opponents may also influence fight strategies.
• Both fighters have strong motivation; Shem Rock to make a successful return after a long layoff and disrupted fight schedule, and Korkmaz to rebound from a recent loss and capitalize on the opportunity to climb back in the rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Shem Rock: -300, Attila Korkmaz: 200	Shem Rock to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Shem Rock -1.5 rounds: -110, Attila Korkmaz +1.5 rounds: -110	Shem Rock by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Shem Rock -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Shem Rock at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Shem Rock is favored to win due to his superior ranking and skill set despite inactivity, supported by Korkmaz's readiness to fight but recent defeat. The fight may go to the judges but Rock’s edge in technical grappling and striking could secure a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Shem Rock wins by unanimous decision after 3 competitive rounds

Match Analysis: Arijan Topallaj vs Denis Frimpong – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: München, Germany

Game Overview

The fight between Arijan Topallaj and Denis Frimpong is a highly anticipated lightweight bout scheduled for May 17, 2025, at OKTAGON MMA 71 in München. This match carries extra intensity due to a recent heated rivalry sparked by a cageside altercation and previous fight cancellations. Both fighters bring strong finishing ability and momentum, making this a key contest on the main card in the catchweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arijan Topallaj holds a near-perfect record with 7 wins all by first-round finishes, showcasing exceptional knockout power and finishing skill, especially notable for his rapid victories over fighters like Paulus and Ryšavý. Denis Frimpong, the aggressive Irish contender, has demonstrated steady dominance with recent wins inside OKTAGON against quality opponents including Robin Frank, whose first career loss was handed by Frimpong. Both fighters are in strong form entering this bout.
• This will be the first official fight between Arijan Topallaj and Denis Frimpong. However, tensions have been rising due to a canceled bout earlier in the year caused by Topallaj's injury and a physical confrontation at a previous event, adding an intense psychological and emotional edge to this matchup.
• No current injury concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of this match, with Topallaj fully recovered from his previous injury that caused the fight delay.
• The fight is hosted in München, Germany, giving a slight home advantage ambiance to German fighter Topallaj. The bout is part of a major OKTAGON MMA event and has significant viewer attention, possibly increasing pressure and motivation for both fighters. The pre-fight animosity and provocations also heighten the stakes.
• Both fighters are highly motivated — Topallaj aims to maintain his flawless finishing streak and assert dominance in the lightweight division, while Frimpong is driven to prove himself by avenging delays and confrontations, with his recent wins fuelling his confidence and desire to silence his opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Arijan Topallaj: -115, Denis Frimpong: -125	Denis Frimpong	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Arijan Topallaj: +1.5, Denis Frimpong: -1.5	Denis Frimpong -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Denis Frimpong -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Denis Frimpong at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Topallaj's exceptional finishing rate and home advantage tempered by Frimpong’s recent dominant performances and fighting spirit, the fight is expected to be closely contested. However, Topallaj's power and early aggression give him a slight edge for a first-round finish. Frimpong remains a strong threat to push the fight beyond early rounds or to decision if he withstands initial pressure.

Predicted Score: Fight to last 2 rounds with Frimpong edging a decision or Topallaj winning by early stoppage if he lands decisive strikes in round 1

Match Analysis: Alexander Poppeck vs Pavol Langer – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: BMW Park, Munich, Germany

Game Overview

The MMA match between Alexander Poppeck and Pavol Langer is a highly anticipated rematch taking place at OKTAGON 71 on May 17, 2025. Poppeck seeks revenge following their previous encounter, adding an emotional edge to the contest. Both fighters compete in the light heavyweight division and bring contrasting styles that make this bout a compelling tactical battle.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexander Poppeck has shown consistent success in his recent fights and holds a stronger ranking (#73) compared to Pavol Langer (#96). Poppeck is favored by bookmakers, reflecting his superior form and recent performances. Langer, however, is known for resilience and could challenge expectations.
• This is a rematch where Poppeck is eager to avenge a prior defeat to Langer. Their previous fight provided valuable insights into each other's strategies and weaknesses, which both will attempt to exploit this time.
• No current injury reports are publicly available for either fighter, suggesting both are likely entering the bout in full health.
• The fight takes place in Munich, Germany, at BMW Park, potentially granting Poppeck a slight home crowd advantage given proximity and familiarity. The event is a major OKTAGON MMA card, adding significance and pressure for both competitors.
• Poppeck's motivation is amplified by the desire for revenge, adding psychological impetus. Langer, as the underdog, also carries the drive to upset the odds and improve his ranking, which can fuel his performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alexander Poppeck: -350, Pavol Langer: 225	Alexander Poppeck	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Alexander Poppeck: -1.5, Pavol Langer: +1.5	Alexander Poppeck -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alexander Poppeck -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexander Poppeck at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alexander Poppeck is favored to win this rematch by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his higher ranking, recent fight form, and home advantage. However, Pavol Langer's previous win and durability mean an upset is possible, though less likely based on current data.

Predicted Score: Poppeck wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Taylor Bevan vs Juan Cruz Cacheiro – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

Taylor Bevan is heavily favored in this matchup, with significant odds against Juan Cruz Cacheiro. Bevan's dominant position in the betting odds suggests a strong advantage over Cacheiro.

Key Factors to Consider

• Taylor Bevan appears to be in a stronger position, as indicated by the large odds disparity. Juan Cruz Cacheiro faces a significant challenge given the odds against him.
• No historical data is available for head-to-head performance between these two fighters.
• There is no information available regarding injuries to either fighter.
• External factors such as venue and crowd support may influence the fight, but specifics are not available.
• Both fighters are likely motivated by the competition and desire to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Taylor Bevan -6000, Juan Cruz Cacheiro 1600	Taylor Bevan	High

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Taylor Bevan -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Taylor Bevan is expected to win this match given the odds.

Predicted Score: N/A

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Match Analysis: Shaqueme Rock vs Attila Korkmaz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Munich, Germany

Game Overview

This match is a significant challenge for Shem Rock, who faces the experienced Attila Korkmaz on short notice. Korkmaz is stepping in after Rock's original opponents withdrew due to various reasons.

Key Factors to Consider

• Shem Rock is a rising star with a strong background, but he faces a tough test against Korkmaz, who has experience from Bellator. Korkmaz is known for being ready to fight at any time.
• There is no prior head-to-head data between these two fighters.
• Shem Rock has experienced a layoff due to injuries, while no recent injuries are reported for Korkmaz.
• The fight is taking place in Munich, Germany, and the short-notice nature may affect both fighters' preparation.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Rock seeking a statement win and Korkmaz looking to regain momentum.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the short notice and Korkmaz's experience, this is a closely contested match. However, Rock's youth and aggression might give him an edge.

Predicted Score: Shem Rock wins by decision or late stoppage

Match Analysis: Jakub Dohnal vs Wanderley Junior – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

This upcoming MMA fight between Jakub Dohnal and Wanderley Junior is part of the OKTAGON MMA series, taking place in the Featherweight division. The match is scheduled for May 17, 2025.

Key Factors to Consider

• Detailed performance metrics for both fighters are not available, but their past performances will be crucial in determining the outcome.
• No head-to-head history between the fighters is provided.
• No injury reports are available for either fighter.
• External factors such as crowd support could influence the fight, but venue specifics are not provided.
• Both fighters are likely motivated to win, but specific motivational factors are not detailed.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jakub Dohnal: +123, Wanderley Junior: -153	Wanderley Junior	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Wanderley Junior -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Wanderley Junior at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the odds, Wanderley Junior is favored to win.

Predicted Score: Not applicable for MMA

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Match Analysis: Tomáš Mudroch vs Ozan Aslaner – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The upcoming fight between Tomáš Mudroch and Ozan Aslaner is part of OKTAGON MMA, scheduled for May 17, 2025. Both fighters compete in the Lightweight division. Mudroch's last fight ended in a TKO win against Petru Buzdugan. Aslaner, a German fighter with Turkish roots, has a background in boxing.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mudroch recently won his last fight via TKO. Aslaner has a strong background in boxing, which might influence his striking performance.
• No head-to-head data available for these fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• No external factors noted that could significantly impact the match.
• Both fighters are likely motivated to win, given the importance of each match in their careers.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Based on the recent performance of Tomáš Mudroch, he might have an edge in the fight. However, Ozan Aslaner's boxing background could provide a competitive challenge.

Predicted Score: Mudroch wins by decision

Match Analysis: Patrick Vespaziani vs Jovan Zeljkovic – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: BMW Park, Munich, Germany

Game Overview

Patrick Vespaziani, a heavyweight powerhouse from MMA Spirit, faces Jovan Zeljkovic at OKTAGON 71. Vespaziani has shown significant potential in his previous fights, while Zeljkovic has a strong record with 5 wins and 1 loss.

Key Factors to Consider

• Patrick Vespaziani has a strong record with 4 wins and 2 losses, primarily finishing fights via KO/TKO. Jovan Zeljkovic has 5 wins and 1 loss, with a mix of TKO and submission victories.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between the two fighters.
• No injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The fight is at BMW Park in Munich, Germany, which may influence crowd support but not significantly impact the fighters' performance.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, with Vespaziani aiming to continue his successful run in the heavyweight division and Zeljkovic seeking to upset the favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Patrick Vespaziani: -2000, Jovan Zeljkovic: +1000	Patrick Vespaziani to win	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Patrick Vespaziani -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Patrick Vespaziani is favored to win due to his recent performances and height advantage.

Predicted Score: Patrick Vespaziani wins by TKO in the 2nd round.

Match Analysis: Borussia Dortmund vs Holstein Kiel – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 1:30 PM UTC
• Location: Signal Iduna Park

Game Overview

Borussia Dortmund, currently in 5th place in the Bundesliga, will host Holstein Kiel, who is struggling in 17th place. The home team has shown strong performance this season, while Holstein Kiel faces challenges in maintaining their position in the league.

Key Factors to Consider

• Borussia Dortmund has accumulated 54 points this season, while Holstein Kiel has secured 25 points. Borussia Dortmund has recorded 25 wins in 49 matches, highlighting their consistency.
• Borussia Dortmund has been dominant, winning 67% of their last three matchups against Holstein Kiel. They have a strong record with high-scoring matches.
• No specific injury reports are available for this match.
• Motivation and morale are key factors. Borussia Dortmund aims to extend their positive run, while Holstein Kiel seeks to improve their league position.
• Borussia Dortmund will be highly motivated to secure a win, while Holstein Kiel will look to cause an upset.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-1200 (Borussia Dortmund), 1900 (Holstein Kiel), 1200 (Draw)	Borussia Dortmund	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	-3 -108 (Borussia Dortmund), 3 -112 (Holstein Kiel)	Borussia Dortmund to cover the spread	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 4.5 -110, Under 4.5 -110	Over 4.5	★★★★☆ 80%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Borussia Dortmund -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 4.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 4.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Borussia Dortmund is likely to win convincingly due to their strong head-to-head record and current form.

Predicted Score: 4-1

Match Analysis: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Bochum – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 17 May 2025
• Time: 1:30 PM UTC
• Location: Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg – St. Pauli, Germany

Game Overview

FC St. Pauli, currently 14th in the standings with 32 points, will face off against 18th-placed VfL Bochum, who have 22 points. Both teams are looking to improve their league standing, with St. Pauli seeking a win to secure a better position and Bochum aiming to avoid relegation.

Key Factors to Consider

• St. Pauli has struggled recently, winning only 2 of their last 14 matches in the Bundesliga. However, they have been undefeated in 6 of their last 7 home encounters with Bochum. Bochum, on the other hand, has a high loss rate this season and is desperate for points.
• The recent head-to-head matchups between St. Pauli and Bochum have shown a tendency towards draws, with a 50% draw rate in their last 6 meetings.
• No specific injury reports are available for this match.
• The home advantage for St. Pauli could be a significant factor, as they often perform better at Millerntor-Stadion.
• Both teams are highly motivated, with St. Pauli looking to secure a safer position and Bochum fighting to avoid relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-155 (St. Pauli), 380 (Bochum), 330 (Draw)	St. Pauli to win	★★☆☆☆ 41%
Spread	-0.75 -122 (St. Pauli), 75 102 (Bochum)	St. Pauli to cover the spread	★★☆☆☆ 35%
Over/under	Over 3 -105, Under 3 -115	Under 3	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	FC St. Pauli 106%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: FC St. Pauli at 106% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the recent form and home advantage, St. Pauli is slightly favored to win this match.

Predicted Score: St. Pauli 1, VfL Bochum 0