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Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 11:45 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC Vegas 106 fight between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa is a featherweight bout featuring two southpaw fighters with contrasting styles. Erosa, a 35-year-old veteran finisher known for his volume striking and aggression, faces the younger and durable Melquizael Costa, who emphasizes defense and counter-striking. Both fighters enter with a motivation for a four-fight win streak, making this contest highly competitive and significant for their career trajectories.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Julian Erosa brings a record of 31-12-0 with a high volume of significant strikes at 6.40 per minute and a 49% strike accuracy, but he absorbs a high rate at 6.21 strikes per minute. Melquizael Costa holds a 23-7-0 record with lower strike output at 3.86 per minute but better defense, absorbing just 2.72 strikes per minute and defending 52% of strikes. Both fighters have similar striking accuracy around 49%.
  • There is no recorded previous bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa, marking this fight as their first direct encounter.
  • No reported injuries to either fighter have been indicated close to the fight date, suggesting both are expected to enter at full health.
  • The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters, reducing travel and acclimatization concerns. No significant external distractions or controversies have been reported impacting either fighter’s preparedness.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a 4-fight win streak, which would boost their UFC rankings and career momentum. Erosa, the veteran, aims to demonstrate his finishing prowess, while Costa looks to leverage his defensive skills and youth to outlast Erosa.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Julian Erosa: +142, Melquizael Costa: -170 Melquizael Costa ★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread Julian Erosa: 3.5 -110, Melquizael Costa: -3.5 -120 Melquizael Costa -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 124, Under: 2.5 -160 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Melquizael Costa -13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the defensive durability and lower absorption rate of strikes by Melquizael Costa combined with his ability to defend strikes effectively, Costa has a statistical edge despite Erosa's higher volume and finishing reputation. Costa’s youth and defense likely make him the favorite, but Erosa’s pressure and experience could yield a competitive fight. The prediction favors Melquizael Costa to win by decision or late stoppage.

Predicted Score: Melquizael Costa wins via decision (3-0 rounds)


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New England Revolution vs. San Jose Earthquakes Prediction MLS in Soccer

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Match Analysis: New England Revolution vs San Jose Earthquakes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 11:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Gillette Stadium

Game Overview

The New England Revolution face the San Jose Earthquakes in a crucial MLS match. New England seeks to continue their strong defensive form, while San Jose looks to exploit their high-scoring attack. The match is expected to be intense, with both teams needing a win to improve their standings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • New England Revolution has been solid defensively, conceding only 10 goals, while San Jose Earthquakes have scored 26 goals through 12 games. New England recently drew 3-3 with Orlando City, ending their shutout streak but maintaining an unbeaten run.
  • New England has a seven-game unbeaten streak against San Jose, with their last meeting in 2019 ending 3-1 in favor of New England. However, San Jose's roster includes several former Revolution players.
  • No specific injury reports are available, but both teams should be at near full strength.
  • Gillette Stadium is known for its challenging environment, which could favor New England. However, San Jose’s attacking prowess could pose significant challenges.
  • Both teams are motivated to win to improve their league position. New England sees this as a chance to move up the table, while San Jose aims to capitalize on their attacking form.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline 100 for New England, 238 for San Jose, 280 for Draw New England Revolution ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread -0.5 New England -104, +50 San Jose -127 New England Revolution ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 2.5 -161, Under 2.5 121 Over 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline New England Revolution -10%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -16%

🔥 Best Value Pick: New England Revolution at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

New England Revolution is likely to win, given their strong home form and defensive solidity, but San Jose's attack could make it a close contest.

Predicted Score: 2-1 in favor of New England Revolution


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Atlanta United FC vs. Philadelphia Union Prediction MLS in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 11:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Game Overview

Atlanta United FC, currently 11th in the MLS, hosts the Philadelphia Union, ranked 3rd, in a regular season clash. The Union recently dominated Atlanta 3-0 on April 19, 2025, with standout performances from Sullivan, Jean Jacques, and Baribo. Both teams are motivated: Atlanta seeks redemption at home, while the Union aims to extend their strong form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Philadelphia Union are in excellent form, securing a convincing 3-0 win over Atlanta just weeks ago and ranking among the league's top teams. Atlanta United, by contrast, has struggled for consistency and sits in the lower half of the standings. The Union's defense, led by goalkeeper Andre Blake, has been particularly strong, while Atlanta’s attack has lacked clinical finishing.
  • Recent head-to-head results favor the Union, with Philadelphia winning the last encounter 3-0. Historically, Philadelphia has performed well in this fixture, especially under pressure.
  • No major injury updates are available from current sources for either side. Both teams are likely to field close to full-strength lineups.
  • The match will be played at Atlanta’s home ground, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, which traditionally provides a significant home advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no extreme factors impacting play.
  • Atlanta United is highly motivated to bounce back from a comprehensive defeat and please their home fans. Philadelphia Union, on a strong run and sitting 3rd, will aim to consolidate their position with another victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline atlanta_united_fc: 123, philadelphia_union: 197, draw: 265 Philadelphia Union or Draw High
Spread atlanta_united_fc: -0.5 117, philadelphia_union: 50 -156 Philadelphia Union +0.5 High
Over/under over: 2.5 -152, under: 2.5 113 Over 2.5 Goals Medium

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Philadelphia Union 34%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Philadelphia Union at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite Atlanta's home advantage, Philadelphia Union's superior form and recent dominance over Atlanta make them the favorites. However, Atlanta's motivation and home crowd could make this closer than the previous meeting. The most likely outcome is a Union win or a draw, with a slight edge to Philadelphia.

Predicted Score: Philadelphia Union 2-1 Atlanta United FC


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Charlotte FC vs. Chicago Fire Prediction MLS in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Charlotte FC vs Chicago Fire – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 11:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Charlotte FC Home Stadium

Game Overview

Charlotte FC hosts Chicago Fire in a Major League Soccer match, with Charlotte having a stronger recent head-to-head record and slightly better home form. Chicago Fire has struggled with away wins, while Charlotte has dominated past encounters between the two teams.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Charlotte FC has shown moderate scoring ability with an average of 1.21 goals per match this season, achieving 11 wins, 10 draws, and 19 losses overall. Chicago Fire is underperforming, with only 2 away wins recently and generally poorer form. Both teams have a propensity for matches going over 1.5 goals, with Charlotte FC's home matches reaching over 2.5 goals about one-third of the time.
  • In five competitive matches between Charlotte FC and Chicago Fire, Charlotte has won 4 times, while Chicago has won once, with no draws recorded. On average, matches between these teams have produced about 3.2 goals, indicating a moderately high scoring tendency. Charlotte’s dominance in H2H encounters and the higher average goals scored support an attacking game trend.
  • No specific injury reports or lineup changes are available from the current data, which may suggest both teams are likely to field their standard squads.
  • No major external factors such as weather disruptions or significant travel issues have been reported. The match being played at Charlotte’s home ground gives them a potential advantage.
  • Charlotte FC likely enters the match with stronger motivation due to better recent results and home advantage, whereas Chicago Fire faces pressure to improve their poor away form.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Charlotte FC: -102, Chicago Fire: 250, Draw: 270 Charlotte FC win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Charlotte FC -0.5: -106, Chicago Fire +50: -125 Charlotte FC -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -172, Under 2.5: 128 Over 2.5 goals ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Charlotte FC 15%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Charlotte FC at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charlotte FC is favored to win this match, leveraging home advantage and historical superiority over Chicago Fire. The match is likely to feature goals, potentially exceeding 2.5 total.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Gabriel Green vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: May 17, 2025
  • Time: 11:15 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This upcoming MMA fight features Gabriel Green, a seasoned fighter with a record of 11-5, against Matheus Camilo, a newcomer to the UFC with a 9-2 record. The bout is part of UFC Fight Night 256, taking place in the welterweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Gabriel Green has more UFC experience, which could be an advantage. However, Matheus Camilo is coming in with momentum from his recent performances.
  • There is no prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
  • No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
  • The fight's location and the presence of home fans might not significantly impact the outcome since both fighters are not from the venue's local area.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, with Camilo aiming to make a strong UFC debut and Green seeking to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Gabriel Green: 190, Matheus Camilo: -230 Matheus Camilo ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Gabriel Green: 3.5 110, Matheus Camilo: -3.5 -150 Matheus Camilo ★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under Over: 2.5 120, Under: 2.5 -154 Under ★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Matheus Camilo -11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo is favored to win due to his recent success and Dana White's recognition through his 'Lookin' For a Fight' contract.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Matheus Camilo.


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Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 10:35 PM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

This Lightweight division matchup in the UFC features Jared Gordon, known for his aggressive approach, facing Thiago Moises, who excels at neutralizing opponents with his patient and poised fighting style. Moises has a solid wrestling and grappling game, while Gordon is expected to be the more active fighter. The fight is part of the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Both fighters have similar records, with Gordon holding a slight edge in activity and aggression. Moises, however, has a more effective neutralizing style, which he uses to control opponents.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups between these fighters are noted.
  • No recent injuries are reported for either fighter.
  • The fight environment in the UFC Vegas 106 Prelims could favor Gordon's aggressive style, but Moises's calm approach might counterbalance this.
  • Both fighters are motivated to secure a win, but Gordon's aggressive style might indicate a higher level of motivation to outperform Moises.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -122 : 102 Jared Gordon ★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread -3.5 175 : 3.5 -245 Jared Gordon ★★★☆☆ 50%
Over/under 2.5 -330 : 2.5 240 Under ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jared Gordon 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 104%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 104% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon is likely to win via decision due to his aggressive strategy and ability to outwork opponents. However, Moises's grappling skills could pose a challenge if he can take Gordon down.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Jared Gordon


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Yadier DelValle vs. Connor Matthews Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Yadier DelValle vs Connor Matthews – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 10:10 PM UTC
  • Location: Not specified

Game Overview

The upcoming MMA fight between Yadier DelValle and Connor Matthews is set to take place at UFC Vegas 106 in the Featherweight division. Yadier DelValle is undefeated with a record of 8-0-0, while Connor Matthews accepted this fight on short notice.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Yadier DelValle is undefeated and has a strong background in MMA, while Connor Matthews has had recent losses and is coming into this fight on short notice.
  • This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
  • There are no reported injuries for either fighter.
  • Connor Matthews' short notice and recent performance trends could negatively impact his chances.
  • Both fighters are highly motivated, but Connor Matthews might be more driven due to overcoming short preparation time.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Yadier DelValle: -500, Connor Matthews: 380 Yadier DelValle ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Yadier DelValle: -3.5 -205, Connor Matthews: 3.5 150 Yadier DelValle ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -135, Under: 2.5 105 Over ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Yadier DelValle -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Yadier DelValle at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Yadier DelValle is favored to win due to his undefeated record and Connor Matthews' short preparation time.

Predicted Score: Yadier DelValle by decision or late stoppage


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Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 9:40 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Vegas 106

Game Overview

Luana Santos and Tainara Lisboa are set to face each other in a bantamweight fight at UFC Vegas 106. Luana Santos is favored for her precise striking and grappling skills, while Tainara Lisboa is known for her aggressive fighting style.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Luana Santos' precise striking and grappling skills give her an edge, while Tainara Lisboa's aggressive approach could lead to early success.
  • There is no historical head-to-head data available for this matchup.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter.
  • Both fighters are from Brazil, which might not significantly impact the fight's dynamics.
  • Both fighters are motivated to win, with Luana Santos being favored to win.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline -162 vs 136 Luana Santos ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread -3.5 140 vs 3.5 -190 Luana Santos ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 2.5 -270 vs Under 2.5 200 Over ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Luana Santos -99%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Luana Santos is likely to win due to her technical skills and current form.

Predicted Score: Luana Santos by decision


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Vasco da Gama vs. Fortaleza Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Fortaleza – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 9:30 PM UTC
  • Location: São Januario, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

This match between Vasco da Gama and Fortaleza is crucial for both teams in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Recent form and head-to-head results will significantly influence the outcome.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Vasco da Gama has shown strong performances at home, while Fortaleza has struggled on the road. Vasco da Gama recently beat Fortaleza 2-0 in their last Serie A meeting.
  • Vasco da Gama has a slight edge in recent encounters, winning 3 of their last 10 meetings against Fortaleza, with Fortaleza winning 3 as well. However, Vasco da Gama has been more consistent in their home games.
  • No significant injury reports for either team are available.
  • Home advantage is a significant factor, with Vasco da Gama typically performing better at São Januario.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure crucial points in the league standings.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Vasco da Gama: 140, Fortaleza: 235, Draw: 205 Vasco da Gama ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Vasco da Gama: -0.25 (100), Fortaleza: 25 (-120) Vasco da Gama ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over: 2 (-118), Under: 2 (-102) Under ★★★☆☆ 50%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vasco da Gama 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vasco da Gama is likely to win this match, considering their home advantage and recent performance against Fortaleza.

Predicted Score: Vasco da Gama 2, Fortaleza 0


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Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-05-17
  • Time: 9:10 PM UTC
  • Location: UFC Vegas 106 (Venue unspecified)

Game Overview

This UFC Strawweight prelims fight features Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes, scheduled for May 17, 2025, at 21:10 UTC. Elise Reed is known for her crisp technique and fluid movement, while Denise Gomes thrives on an aggressive pace. Gomes holds a UFC record of 4-2 with an overall 10-3, and Reed has a UFC record of 4-4 with an overall 8-4. The bout is expected to be a dynamic clash of styles with Gomes as the betting favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Denise Gomes has showcased a strong UFC performance with a 4-2 record, improving recently to 4-1 in UFC fights. Elise Reed has struggled to maintain consistency with a 4-4 UFC record, although her technique is highly regarded. Gomes’ aggressive style contrasts with Reed's technical and movement-based approach.
  • This is the first professional meeting between Denise Gomes and Elise Reed with no previous head-to-head records available.
  • No reported current injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
  • The fight is on UFC prelims card at UFC Vegas, which does not imply significant external pressure. Both fighters are motivated to improve rankings in the Strawweight division.
  • Denise Gomes seeks to build momentum after solid UFC performances, while Elise Reed aims to rebound from mixed results and prove her skill set at the UFC level.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Denise Gomes: -600, Elise Reed: +440 Denise Gomes ★★★★☆ 78%
Spread Denise Gomes: -3.5 -205, Elise Reed: +3.5 +150 Denise Gomes -3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: +145 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Denise Gomes -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Denise Gomes is favored to win due to her aggressive style, stronger UFC recent form, and favorable odds. The fight may end before the final round given Gomes’ power and pace.

Predicted Score: Denise Gomes wins by TKO or decision before 3 rounds


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