Match Analysis: Empoli vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Empoli Home Stadium
Game Overview
The Serie A clash between Empoli and Parma is set to be a tightly contested match considering recent trends and historical data. Both teams have struggled for consistent wins against each other, with no team dominating the direct matchups in recent years. The match is likely to feature moderate scoring with defensive resilience from both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- Empoli has exhibited moderate home form with an average of roughly 1.09 goals scored per match and a tendency toward lower goal totals, with 8 out of 23 home matches going over 2.5 goals. Parma, playing away, averages 1.20 goals per match and has seen over 2.5 goals in 11 away matches, suggesting slightly more open attacking play. Both teams show relatively similar defensive records and goal-scoring capabilities this season. Empoli's 17-match winless streak at home against Parma indicates a psychological challenge, while Parma is hovering near the relegation zone, adding pressure but also motivation to gain points.
- In recent head-to-head matches, Empoli won 5 times in 19 encounters versus Parma, with many matches ending in draws. One recent direct match in the current season ended in a draw, with low scoring under 2.5 goals. Historically, direct matches average about 2 goals per game, highlighting a balanced and cautious approach from both sides. Overall, Empoli and Parma are evenly matched in terms of head-to-head results with a slight edge to Empoli in wins.
- Current detailed injury data for both teams is not explicitly available in the search results. However, no critical injury reports have emerged suggesting full or near-full squads can be expected.
- No significant external factors such as weather, travel fatigue, or unusual scheduling are apparent that would heavily influence the outcome. The match is played at Empoli’s home stadium, giving them a slight advantage.
- Parma, sitting 16th and near the relegation zone, likely have strong motivation to secure points to avoid relegation troubles. Empoli, while more stable, is motivated to maintain their Serie A status and leverage home advantage. Both teams appear motivated but Parma’s relegation threat may add urgency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli: 110, Parma: 255, Draw: 250 | Empoli win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Empoli: -0.25 -125, Parma: +25 105 | Empoli -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -105, Under 2.5: -115 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Empoli 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The match is expected to be balanced with a low to moderate scoring outcome. A draw or narrow home win for Empoli is probable given their home advantage and Parma’s need for points, but defensive caution from both teams is likely.
Predicted Score: 1-1