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Match Analysis: Max Metzgar vs Steve Collins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-15
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: LFA 214, Sioux Falls, SD
Game Overview
This LFA lightweight bout features undefeated fighters Max Metzgar (5-0) and Steve Collins (5-0) facing off at LFA 214 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Both fighters bring undefeated records, but contrasting styles and confidence levels create an intriguing matchup where Metzgar boasts unbeaten dominance and confidence while Collins emphasizes striking power and grappling as a surprise element.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters are undefeated with 5-0 records, showing strong performance trajectories. Metzgar has never been dropped or taken down in his 12 fights, demonstrating solid defensive and offensive skills. Collins has two finishes by KO/TKO, including a notable slam KO, showcasing his striking and wrestling power.
- No prior fight history exists between Metzgar and Collins, making this their first encounter. Both fighters express confidence, with Metzgar dismissive of Collins' skill level and Collins warning of a rude awakening especially in striking exchanges.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight takes place at LFA 214 in Sioux Falls, SD. Motivation appears heightened given both fighters are undefeated and seeking to maintain perfect records, likely impacting mental preparedness. Collins has publicly stated intentions to use wrestling as a secret weapon, while Metzgar plans to exploit superior overall skill and not be taken down.
- Metzgar is confident, seizing this fight as a step toward bigger fights (e.g., UFC opportunities). Collins is motivated to prove his wrestling and striking can overcome Metzgar's perceived superiority and expects to catch Metzgar off guard.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Max Metzgar: -150, Steve Collins: +130, Draw: +2500 | Max Metzgar | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Max Metzgar -1.5: -110, Steve Collins +1.5: -110 | Max Metzgar -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: +100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Max Metzgar is predicted to win by decision or late finish due to his strong unbeaten record, resilience, and technical edge, though Collins' power and wrestling skills could make the bout competitive.
Predicted Score: Metzgar wins by unanimous decision or 3rd round TKO