Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 9:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night, Paris
Game Overview
Benoit Saint-Denis faces Mauricio Ruffy in a UFC Fight Night bout in Paris. While Ruffy enters as the betting favorite, analysts suggest Saint-Denis is on a higher fighting level, especially in grappling and overall skill set.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint-Denis has demonstrated superior recent performance with well-rounded skills and strong grappling, while Ruffy’s grappling remains relatively untested against high-level competition.
- No direct head-to-head matches between them previously; stylistic matchup favors Saint-Denis’ grappling advantage.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either fighter prior to the bout.
- Fight taking place in Paris could provide a slight home crowd advantage for Saint-Denis; no travel or external distractions noted.
- Both fighters motivated, but Saint-Denis appears more driven to prove himself against a favored opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 145 | Benoit Saint-Denis | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | 3.5 100 | Benoit Saint-Denis +3.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | 1.5 -160/124 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Benoit Saint-Denis 42% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 46% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Benoit Saint-Denis to win by decision
Predicted Score: Saint-Denis wins by decision after 3 rounds