Match Analysis: Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night, Paris, France

Game Overview

This lightweight UFC bout features Benoit Saint-Denis against Mauricio Ruffy. Saint-Denis is widely regarded as the more established fighter with superior skill and grappling ability. Ruffy, although competitive, has less proven grappling defense and experience at this level.

Key Factors to Consider

• Benoit Saint-Denis has shown consistent high-level performance in recent fights with solid striking and grappling, making him a favorite. Mauricio Ruffy, while talented, has not faced grapplers of Saint-Denis' caliber and may struggle under pressure.
• No recorded previous matches between Saint-Denis and Ruffy, making this their first direct encounter.
• No reported injuries or medical issues affecting either fighter leading into the bout.
• The fight takes place in Paris, potentially favoring the home crowd's support for Saint-Denis. Event timing and preparation appear normal without external disruptions.
• Saint-Denis is motivated to confirm his lightweight contender status, while Ruffy seeks to establish himself with an upset victory, though the experience gap is notable.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Benoit Saint-Denis: +145, Mauricio Ruffy: -175	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Benoit Saint-Denis +3.5: +100, Mauricio Ruffy -3.5: -135	Mauricio Ruffy -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -160, Under 1.5 rounds: +124	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mauricio Ruffy -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Benoit Saint-Denis is predicted to win by controlling grappling exchanges and applying pressure. The likelihood of Saint-Denis securing a victory via decision or late finish is high due to his superior ground game and fight IQ.

Predicted Score: Mauricio Ruffy wins by decision in 3 rounds

Match Analysis: King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-08
• Time: 3:15 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

King Green faces Mauricio Ruffy in a lightweight bout at UFC 313. Green, with a record of 32-16-1, is coming off a loss to Paddy Pimblett. Ruffy, 11-1, is on a six-fight win streak, having won his last bout via decision.

Key Factors to Consider

• King Green has a diverse skill set with 11 knockouts and 9 submissions, but is on a losing streak. Mauricio Ruffy is known for his knockout power, with 10 of his wins coming via KO.
• This is the first meeting between King Green and Mauricio Ruffy.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is at the T-Mobile Arena, which might favor neither fighter specifically due to its neutral location.
• Ruffy is highly motivated to extend his win streak, while Green seeks to bounce back from his recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	King Green: 350, Mauricio Ruffy: -455	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	King Green: 3.5 180, Mauricio Ruffy: -3.5 -250	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over: 1.5 -175, Under: 1.5 135	Over	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mauricio Ruffy is favored to win due to his recent form and knockout power.

Predicted Score: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Bobby King vs Mauricio Ruffy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 8, 2025
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Bobby Green faces Mauricio Ruffy in a lightweight bout at UFC 313. Green seeks to rebound from his last loss, while Ruffy aims to extend his winning streak.

Key Factors to Consider

• Bobby Green has a record of 32-16-1, with recent struggles, while Mauricio Ruffy boasts an impressive 11-1 record with ten knockouts.
• This is the first meeting between Green and Ruffy, with no prior head-to-head record.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Ruffy draws inspiration from soccer, which may influence his strategy and confidence.
• Ruffy is highly motivated, having called out Green previously and seeing this fight as a path to title contention.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bobby King: 375, Mauricio Ruffy: -500	Mauricio Ruffy	★★★★☆ 80%

Predicted Outcome

Mauricio Ruffy is likely to win due to his recent form and knockout power.

Predicted Score: Mauricio Ruffy by knockout in the second round.

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3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Bobby King vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-500	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction	Curtis Blaydes Win	-325	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy Prediction	Mauricio Ruffy Win	-455	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -109

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $38.28