Match Analysis: Matt Turnbull vs Tom Pagliarulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-01
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Not specified
Game Overview
Matt Turnbull faces Tom Pagliarulo in a high-stakes MMA matchup during the 2025 PFL World Tournament 8 finals. Pagliarulo is the heavy favorite with strong knockout power, while Turnbull counters with superior ground fighting skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pagliarulo has shown consistent performance leading up to the final with a strong finishing rate, while Turnbull relies on tactical grappling and control but enters as the underdog.
- No direct prior matchups recorded between Turnbull and Pagliarulo.
- No reported injuries for either fighter entering the bout.
- Fight held at PFL event on August 1, 2025. No notable external distractions or conditions disadvantaging either fighter.
- Both fighters highly motivated due to the importance of the PFL tournament final and prize implications. Pagliarulo looking to assert dominance; Turnbull aiming to leverage tactical advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matt Turnbull +400, Tom Pagliarulo -550 | Tom Pagliarulo | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Pagliarulo -1.5 rounds | Pagliarulo -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds at -110, Under 2.5 rounds at -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tom Pagliarulo -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Tom Pagliarulo at -11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tom Pagliarulo to win by knockout
Predicted Score: Tom Pagliarulo wins by KO in Round 2