Match Analysis: Matt Schnell vs Joseph Morales – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 1:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Top-15 UFC flyweight Matt Schnell (17-9, 1 NC) and Joseph Morales (14-2) meet at UFC Vegas 111 in a pivotal matchup for the division. Schnell is a veteran, high-volume striker with submission savvy but recent durability questions, while Morales is younger, improving, and excels in scrambling and submission hunting.
Key Factors to Consider
- Schnell is the more active striker (4.13 significant strikes/minute vs. Morales' 2.02), but has lost all seven UFC fights by stoppage; Morales is on a run of strong form, averaging nearly 3 submission attempts per fight, and has shown superior durability and finishing instincts.
- No direct H2H, but Morales' grappling and scrambling are stylistically troublesome for Schnell, who has been susceptible to being worn down and finished.
- No recent injury concerns reported for either fighter.
- Card placement is pre-lim at UFC Apex; no crowd or travel concerns. Morales is younger and likely fresher; Schnell is 35, potentially nearing the tail of his prime.
- Morales is rising, motivated to climb the division; Schnell is fighting to avoid a potential release after going 1-3 in last 4, with all losses by stoppage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joseph Morales -425 / Matt Schnell +330 | Joseph Morales wins | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Joseph Morales -7.5 (-165) / Matt Schnell +7.5 (+120) | Joseph Morales (-7.5) covers | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 (-175) / Under 1.5 (+135) | Over 1.5 rounds hits | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joseph Morales -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joseph Morales' superior durability, superior finishing threat, and momentum will see him break through Schnell's early activity, dominate the scrambles, and either submit or outwork Schnell late for a clear decision.
Predicted Score: We project a competitive (possibly back-and-forth) opening but for Morales to wear Schnell down and win in the 2nd half of the fight, likely by submission, or a clear 29-28/30-27 decision.