Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-15
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

The lightweight clash between Viacheslav Borshchev and Matheus Camilo at UFC 322 features Camilo as a slight favorite (-162 moneyline) over Borshchev (+136). Camilo enters motivated after a disappointing recent performance where he appeared to underperform, yet he brings solid submission skills against Borshchev who has shown vulnerabilities on the ground. The fight is expected to be competitive with Camilo's grappling edge and youth likely tipping the balance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Camilo holds a 9-3 record with a submission skillset highlighted by a Kamora win and a strong grappling defense. Borshchev is 8-6-1 overall with a UFC record of 3-5-1, showing inconsistency and struggles to close fights in the UFC.
• No previous H2H meetings between the fighters.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Late addition to UFC 322 prelims, Camilo replacing a withdrawn opponent recently, indicating good conditioning and readiness despite short notice.
• Camilo appears motivated to rebound strongly after a disappointing last fight where he seemed to give up early, while Borshchev has had mixed UFC success, likely under pressure to prove himself.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Camilo -162, Borshchev +136	Camilo	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Camilo -3.5 -105, Borshchev +3.5 -125	Camilo -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 +130, Under 2.5 -166	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo to win by submission

Predicted Score: Camilo wins via 2nd round submission

Match Analysis: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 4:30 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

A lightweight UFC prelim fight featuring Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo, both fighters possess similar recent form and skill levels, making this a closely contested matchup anticipated to extend beyond early rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Both fighters have demonstrated solid technical grappling and striking in recent bouts with no significant downturns; Al-Selwady shows slightly higher recent activity and decision wins while Camilo has strong finishing ability.
• No prior head-to-head matchups recorded, making strategy and adaptability in-fight critical.
• No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter heading into the bout.
• Fight takes place in a neutral venue (Abu Dhabi) with no clear home advantage; standard weight conditions and regulation environment.
• Both fighters are motivated to secure UFC roster positioning and momentum; Al-Selwady's recent decision wins give him confidence in going the distance, Camilo likely motivated to showcase finishing skills.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -102, away: -118	Matheus Camilo	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Al-Selwady +3.5: -155, Camilo -3.5: 115	Al-Selwady +3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -200, Under 1.5: 154	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo to win by decision

Predicted Score: Decision win for Matheus Camilo after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 17, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This upcoming MMA fight features Gabriel Green, a seasoned fighter with a record of 11-5, against Matheus Camilo, a newcomer to the UFC with a 9-2 record. The bout is part of UFC Fight Night 256, taking place in the welterweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gabriel Green has more UFC experience, which could be an advantage. However, Matheus Camilo is coming in with momentum from his recent performances.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
• The fight's location and the presence of home fans might not significantly impact the outcome since both fighters are not from the venue's local area.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Camilo aiming to make a strong UFC debut and Green seeking to improve his UFC record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriel Green: 190, Matheus Camilo: -230	Matheus Camilo	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Gabriel Green: 3.5 110, Matheus Camilo: -3.5 -150	Matheus Camilo	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 120, Under: 2.5 -154	Under	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo is favored to win due to his recent success and Dana White's recognition through his 'Lookin' For a Fight' contract.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Matheus Camilo.