Match Analysis: Viacheslav Borshchev vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 15, 2025
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York

Game Overview

UFC 322 Early Prelims Lightweight Division matchup featuring Viacheslav Borshchev (8-6-1 UFC record) facing Matheus Camilo (9-3 professional record, 0-1 UFC record). This is a late-addition fight to the UFC 322 card, with Camilo stepping in on short notice after his originally scheduled opponent Abdul Karim Alawadi had to withdraw. Camilo, the betting favorite, will look to bounce back from a disappointing UFC debut loss against Gabe Green. Borshchev, despite a losing UFC record, enters as a grappling specialist with submission capabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• Matheus Camilo enters as the betting favorite with moneyline odds of -162, indicating bookmaker confidence in his abilities despite his recent UFC loss. His professional record of 9-3 shows he has competed at a high level, and analysts highlight his grappling and submission skills including kamura and triangle armbar submissions. Viacheslav Borshchev carries a 3-5-1 UFC record but has demonstrated grappling prowess, particularly in takedown defense and submission capability. Camilo's last performance against Gabe Green was criticized as lackluster, suggesting potential motivation issues or stylistic challenges.
• No prior head-to-head history exists between these fighters. This is their first scheduled matchup. Camilo was originally scheduled to face Abdul Karim Alawadi before the opponent withdrawal led to this matchup three weeks later.
• No known injuries or medical concerns reported for either fighter as of the current date. Camilo's quick turnaround from his previous fight against Gabe Green (approximately 3 weeks prior) warrants consideration regarding physical conditioning and recovery, though no official injury reports exist.
• This is an early prelims fight on the UFC 322 main card, which features the main event between Jack Della Maddalena and Islam Makhachev for the welterweight title. The early prelims time slot (11:05 PM UTC) may affect viewership but provides both fighters with adequate rest and recovery time. Camilo's short-notice replacement scenario and the three-week turnaround from his previous bout represent potential preparation concerns.
• Camilo faces significant motivation to recover from his disappointing UFC debut loss and prove his worth in the organization after a lackluster performance against Gabe Green. Borshchev, with a losing UFC record of 3-5-1, faces career pressure to secure wins. However, Camilo's status as a late replacement and the compressed timeline may indicate either high confidence or desperation, depending on context. The early prelims positioning suggests lower stakes compared to main card fights.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Camilo -162 / Borshchev +136	Matheus Camilo wins	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Camilo -3.5 (-105) / Borshchev +3.5 (-125)	Camilo wins decisively within 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (130) / Under 2.5 (-166)	Under 2.5 rounds (fight ends before round 3)	★★★★☆ 71%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo 13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Matheus Camilo at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Matheus Camilo is predicted to win this matchup via submission in the second round. Analysts emphasize that Camilo's grappling and submission specialists advantage represents a significant skill gap, particularly exploiting what is described as 'a glaring hole' in Borshchev's submission defense game. While Borshchev demonstrates solid grappling fundamentals and takedown defense (as shown in his performance against Dabshak Navatov), Camilo's recent triangle armbar development and kamura victories provide specific technical advantages. However, Camilo's recent poor performance against Gabe Green introduces uncertainty regarding his mental state and consistency, preventing maximum confidence in this prediction.

Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo via submission (triangle armbar or similar grappling technique) at 3:15 of Round 2

Match Analysis: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 4:30 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi

Game Overview

The Lightweight division prelim bout between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo at UFC 321 features two fighters with UFC records of 0-1, both seeking their first promotional win. Both athletes suffered stoppage losses in their UFC debuts, with Al-Selwady getting knocked out in the third round and Camilo being submitted in the second round. This fight marks the return of Al-Selwady after a long layoff, while Camilo is a younger fighter with notable regional success and six finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Al-Selwady has a record of 15-4 with a history of KO losses, indicating a vulnerability in striking defense. Camilo holds a 9-3 record with his three losses coming via submission, illustrating a ground game weakness. Both fighters showed weaknesses in their UFC debuts but possess finishing capabilities; Camilo with six finishes and Al-Selwady typically relying on striking power.
• This is the first meeting between Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady and Matheus Camilo, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
• No reported injuries for either fighter at the time of this bout. Al-Selwady had a long inactivity period likely due to opponents pulling out and possible undisclosed issues, but no confirmed injury was reported.
• The fight takes place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, which is a neutral venue with no apparent advantage to either fighter. Both fighters are relatively new to the UFC stage with limited promotion experience. The bout’s placement on prelims despite limited UFC success for both fighters suggests low pressure but high personal motivation.
• Both fighters have strong incentives to secure their first UFC win to avoid an 0-2 promotional record. Al-Selwady is making a comeback after over a year on the shelf, which may add motivation to prove himself. Camilo, younger and still early in his UFC career, looks to rebound from a submission loss and demonstrate his finishing ability.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady: -102, Matheus Camilo: -118	Matheus Camilo win	★★★☆☆ 54%
Spread	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady +3.5: -155, Matheus Camilo -3.5: 115	Matheus Camilo by more than 3.5 rounds or decisive finish	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -200, Under 1.5 rounds: 154	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the fighters' weaknesses and past fight outcomes, the fight is expected to be competitive but tends to slightly favor Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady due to his experience and striking power. However, Camilo’s youth and submission skills add unpredictability to the outcome.

Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo wins via submission or decision in round 2 or 3

Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-17
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This UFC Welterweight prelims bout features Gabriel Green versus promotional newcomer Matheus Camilo. Green, a more experienced UFC fighter with an 11-5 (2-3 UFC) record, faces Camilo, a younger prospect at 24 years old who enters the UFC with a 9-2 overall record and has demonstrated finishing ability with four wins by (T)KO and two by submission. The match is expected to test Camilo's potential at a high level as he seeks to establish his UFC career, while Green looks to maintain his standing in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Gabriel Green has UFC experience and a balanced skillset but has been inconsistent lately with a UFC record of 2-3. Matheus Camilo is less experienced in UFC but has a strong finishing rate and an upward trajectory as a young fighter with diverse finishing methods on feet and ground.
• This will be their first career matchup, with no previous head-to-head fights or results available.
• No known injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into this matchup.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar setting for Green, potentially giving him a slight home advantage in terms of environment. Camilo has momentum after recently signing the UFC contract via Dana White's 'Lookin' For a Fight' series.
• Camilo is highly motivated to solidify his UFC spot and make a strong impression in his promotional debut, while Green will aim to leverage his experience to secure a win and stay relevant in the division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gabriel Green: +190, Matheus Camilo: -230	Matheus Camilo	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Gabriel Green +3.5: +110, Matheus Camilo -3.5: -150	Matheus Camilo -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: +120, Under 2.5 rounds: -154	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Matheus Camilo -12%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

While Gabriel Green's UFC experience and environment familiarity give him an edge, Matheus Camilo's finishing capability and youth present a high-risk, high-reward challenge. The prediction leans slightly towards Matheus Camilo pulling off an upset due to his finishing ability and momentum.

Predicted Score: Matheus Camilo wins by TKO in Round 2