Match Analysis: Gabriel Green vs Matheus Camilo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 17, 2025
- Time: 11:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
This upcoming MMA fight features Gabriel Green, a seasoned fighter with a record of 11-5, against Matheus Camilo, a newcomer to the UFC with a 9-2 record. The bout is part of UFC Fight Night 256, taking place in the welterweight division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gabriel Green has more UFC experience, which could be an advantage. However, Matheus Camilo is coming in with momentum from his recent performances.
- There is no prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
- The fight's location and the presence of home fans might not significantly impact the outcome since both fighters are not from the venue's local area.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, with Camilo aiming to make a strong UFC debut and Green seeking to improve his UFC record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriel Green: 190, Matheus Camilo: -230 | Matheus Camilo | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Gabriel Green: 3.5 110, Matheus Camilo: -3.5 -150 | Matheus Camilo | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 120, Under: 2.5 -154 | Under | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Matheus Camilo -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Matheus Camilo is favored to win due to his recent success and Dana White's recognition through his 'Lookin' For a Fight' contract.
Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Matheus Camilo.