Match Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-12
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lightweight UFC main event between Charles Oliveira, a submission specialist with a longer reach and finishing rate, and Mateusz Gamrot, a wrestler with a strong takedown average but less finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oliveira has an 89% finishing rate and excels in submissions, while Gamrot holds a strong wrestling base with higher takedown averages. Oliveira has been less consistent recently but possesses high fight IQ and finishing ability.
• No recorded previous matchups between Oliveira and Gamrot; styles suggest Oliveira's Jiu-Jitsu could counter Gamrot's wrestling.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
• Fight taking place in Brazil, Oliveira's home country, which may give him psychological and crowd advantage.
• Oliveira seeking to reestablish himself as a top lightweight contender; Gamrot eager to prove himself on a big stage and in prime age.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: -112, Mateusz Gamrot: -108	Charles Oliveira	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Charles Oliveira -5.5: 120, Mateusz Gamrot +5.5: -165	Mateusz Gamrot +5.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 3.5: 105, Under 3.5: -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira 2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Charles Oliveira at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Oliveira to win by moneyline

Predicted Score: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs L'udovit Klein – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 2:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Mateusz Gamrot faces L'udovit Klein in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at UFC Apex. Gamrot is a former two-time European submission wrestling champion and currently ranked in the UFC lightweight top 10, known for his strong wrestling and high takedown rate. Klein is unranked but boasts a 95.2% takedown defense and formidable striking. This is Klein’s biggest UFC opportunity to date[4][5][3].

Key Factors to Consider

• Gamrot averages 5.25 takedowns per fight with 43 UFC takedowns (2nd most in lightweight division), but Klein leads active lightweights in takedown defense (95.2%). Gamrot is a solid striker (3.23 significant strikes per minute) but absorbs a similar number (3.22), making him vulnerable to Klein’s power[5]. Klein is an aggressive striker with power and is difficult to take down.
• First meeting between the two. No prior record.
• No significant injuries reported; recent rumors of Klein’s injury were debunked[2].
• Event held at UFC Apex, known for intense atmosphere and fan energy, but with a smaller crowd compared to larger arenas[1][3].
• For Klein, this is the biggest fight of his career and a chance to break into the top 10. Gamrot is protecting his ranking and looking to reassert himself in the division[5][3].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mateusz Gamrot: -162 | L'udovit Klein: 136	Mateusz Gamrot	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Mateusz Gamrot: -3.5 150 | L'udovit Klein: 3.5 -205	L'udovit Klein +3.5 (covers)	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -315 | Under: 2.5 230	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mateusz Gamrot -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mateusz Gamrot at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Gamrot is the favorite due to his wrestling pedigree and top-10 ranking, but the fight is likely to be very close. Expect a competitive, technical battle with Gamrot edging the decision via grappling control and experience, though Klein’s takedown defense and striking power make him dangerous throughout. The fight may go the distance, with Gamrot winning by split or unanimous decision in a close contest[5][4].

Predicted Score: Mateusz Gamrot by decision (scorecards: 29–28, 29–28, 28–29; split decision)