Match Analysis: Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 1:45 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot is the main event for a lightweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira and former KSW Featherweight and Lightweight Champion Mateusz Gamrot. The event marks UFC's 13th visit to Rio de Janeiro and features top lightweight contenders vying for dominance in the division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Charles Oliveira holds a professional record of 35 wins and 11 losses with a high grappling and submission skillset, averaging 2.63 submissions per fight. Mateusz Gamrot holds a 25-3 professional record, known for his striking slightly tempered by less submission ability, and a notably higher takedown average (5.33 TD avg) but lower accuracy. Both fighters are specialists in ground game with Oliveira more submission-heavy and Gamrot focusing on control via takedowns.
• This will be the first matchup between Oliveira and Gamrot, with no direct head-to-head combat history, making strategic style versus style a key factor.
• No current injuries reported for either fighter leading into the bout. Mateusz Gamrot replaced the originally scheduled Rafael Fiziev, who withdrew due to a knee injury.
• The fight is held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, favoring Charles Oliveira with home crowd advantage. The event’s timing and atmosphere could influence momentum toward Oliveira who is accustomed to fighting in Brazil.
• Oliveira is motivated to reclaim prominence in the lightweight division after losing the title, while Gamrot, stepping in on short notice, aims to make a statement by defeating a former champion. Both fighters have strong incentives for a competitive, high-intensity performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira: -112, Mateusz Gamrot: -108	Charles Oliveira	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Charles Oliveira: -5.5 120, Mateusz Gamrot: +5.5 -165	Mateusz Gamrot +5.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over: 3.5 105, under: 3.5 -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Charles Oliveira 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 3.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Charles Oliveira is predicted to win due to his elite submission skills, home advantage, and slightly better striking accuracy. Gamrot’s takedown volume and control present a significant challenge, but Oliveira's experience at the highest level could secure a victory, likely by submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Charles Oliveira wins by submission in round 3

Match Analysis: Mateusz Gamrot vs L'udovit Klein – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 2:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

The UFC Fight Night 107 co-main event features Mateusz Gamrot, a top-10 ranked lightweight with elite wrestling skills, facing Ludovit Klein, a dangerous striker with exceptional takedown defense. The fight is scheduled for three rounds at lightweight (155 lbs) at the UFC Apex, with both fighters bringing contrasting styles that make this a highly anticipated matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mateusz Gamrot has maintained strong performance with a focus on wrestling, averaging 5.25 takedowns per fight and boasting the second-most takedowns in the lightweight division. Recently, Gamrot has fought less frequently, with an average of one fight every six months and rounds lasting about 2.8 on average. Ludovit Klein has been more active, fighting more often and featuring a high pace with strong striking and the best takedown defense in the division (95.2%). Klein’s recent fights have averaged 2.6 rounds. Both fighters show strong cardio and finishing potential.
• This will be their first meeting in the octagon, so no direct head-to-head data is available.
• Reports claiming Ludovit Klein is out due to injury (hand break) have been refuted; Klein is confirmed fit and ready to compete.
• The fight is held at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a familiar venue for both fighters. The event is being streamed on ESPN+ and expected to have a competitive atmosphere. Klein is considered the underdog but highly motivated as this represents his biggest fight to date. Gamrot has solid backing as a top contender.
• Both fighters have strong incentives: Gamrot aims to cement his status in the top lightweight rankings, while Klein is looking to break through with a signature win over a ranked opponent, enhancing his UFC profile significantly.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mateusz Gamrot: -162, Ludovit Klein: 136	Mateusz Gamrot	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Mateusz Gamrot -3.5: 150, Ludovit Klein +3.5: -205	Mateusz Gamrot -3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -315, Under 2.5 rounds: 230	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mateusz Gamrot -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mateusz Gamrot at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mateusz Gamrot is favored to win due to his elite wrestling and ability to control the fight pace, but Ludovit Klein's striking and takedown defense can pose significant risks. Expect Gamrot to capitalize on wrestling opportunities while avoiding Klein’s striking power. A decision win or late finish for Gamrot is likely, with Klein having upset potential.

Predicted Score: Gamrot wins by decision after full 3 rounds

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Mateusz Gamrot vs. L'udovit Klein Prediction	Mateusz Gamrot Win	-162	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber Prediction	Erin Blanchfield Win	-238	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Bolaji Oki vs. Michael Aswell Prediction	Bolaji Oki Win	-365	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +193

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $58.52