Match Analysis: Oregon St Beavers vs Massachusetts Minutemen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Virgin Islands Sport & Fitness Center, Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Game Overview
The Oregon State Beavers and Massachusetts Minutemen meet at the Paradise Jam tournament with both teams holding identical 3-3 records in non-conference play. This will be their second-ever meeting, with UMass having won the first matchup in 1991. Oregon State plays with a strong three-point shooting style and decent offensive rebounding, while UMass shows high shooting efficiency overall but has been inconsistent recently. Both teams have shown competitive spirit but are looking to establish momentum early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oregon State averages 7.7 made three-pointers per game and is strong on offensive rebounds (8.8 per game). UMass shoots at a 46% field goal percentage, better than what Oregon State's opponents have averaged. Both teams stand at 3-3 records, with Oregon State narrowly losing a double-overtime match recently and UMass splitting games closely.
- This is only the second meeting ever between these programs, with UMass leading 1-0 from the last encounter back in 1991. No recent head-to-head data is present, making historical outcome less predictive.
- No significant injury reports have been noted for either team ahead of this matchup.
- The game takes place at a neutral site in the U.S. Virgin Islands during the Paradise Jam, possibly affecting team acclimatization and travel fatigue evenly. Both teams are motivated to perform in this early season tournament.
- Both teams are 3-3 and aiming to improve their records and gain tournament momentum. UMass will look to leverage their shooting efficiency, while Oregon State will rely on their three-point accuracy and rebounding strengths.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Massachusetts Minutemen: 116, Oregon State Beavers: -140 | Oregon State Beavers win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Massachusetts Minutemen: -1.5 -102, Oregon State Beavers: 1.5 -120 | Oregon State Beavers -1.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -110, Under: 152.5 -110 | Under 152.5 points total | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon St Beavers 24% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Oregon St Beavers at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Oregon State's slight edge in three-point shooting, rebounding, and the bookmaker favoring them on the moneyline and spread, Oregon State is favored to win this contest by a narrow margin. However, UMass's high shooting percentages and previous historical win present a competitive challenge.
Predicted Score: Oregon State Beavers 77 – Massachusetts Minutemen 71