Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Bolaji Oki faces Mason Jones in a UFC lightweight bout at UFC Paris. Both fighters weigh 155 lbs and share orthodox stance, with very similar height (5'10") and reach (Oki 73", Jones 74"). Oki holds a 10-2 record, while Jones has 16-2 (1 NC). Oki is known for higher strike output and better striking accuracy and defense, while Jones has a slightly better ability to avoid damage but lands fewer strikes per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oki lands 7.05 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy and defends 62% of strikes, absorbing 4.76. Jones lands 5.56 strikes per minute at 41% accuracy, defends only 48%, and absorbs 4.46 significant strikes per minute. Oki's recent form includes consecutive wins, while Jones also has a strong record but recent fights show some mixed results.
• No previous head-to-head meetings between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones exist.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter leading up to the bout.
• Fight will take place at Accor Arena in Paris, France, under UFC rules. Both fighters will be competing at their natural weight class with no external known performance impacts.
• Both fighters are experienced and motivated to solidify their standings in the lightweight division. Oki aims to continue building momentum after recent wins. Jones seeks to assert dominance and maintain his strong win ratio.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki: +114, Mason Jones: -135	Mason Jones	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Bolaji Oki +3.5: -180, Mason Jones -3.5: +130	Mason Jones -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -175, Under 2.5 rounds: +135	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mason Jones -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 29%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bolaji Oki is favored to win based on superior striking volume, accuracy, and ability to defend incoming strikes. Mason Jones poses a credible threat but lower striking output and defensive metrics suggest Oki has the edge.

Predicted Score: Mason Jones win by decision

Match Analysis: Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 3, 2025
• Time: 2:15 AM UTC
• Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

Game Overview

Jeremy Stephens returns to the UFC to face Mason Jones in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo. Stephens has a competitive track record in MMA and additional experience in boxing and bare-knuckle fighting, while Jones is favored due to his recent form.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jeremy Stephens has had varied success across MMA, boxing, and bare-knuckle fighting. Mason Jones is entering with strong momentum.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No specific injury reports for either fighter are mentioned.
• The event takes place in Des Moines, which might favor Stephens due to potential crowd support.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Stephens seeking a strong comeback in the UFC and Jones looking to maintain his winning streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Stephens: +425, Jones: -575	Mason Jones	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Stephens: 3.5 +180, Jones: -3.5 -250	Mason Jones to win by decision or finish	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -135	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 72%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mason Jones -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mason Jones is predicted to win due to his strong current form and favorable odds.

Predicted Score: Mason Jones by TKO/KO in the second round