Match Analysis: Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 3, 2025
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa
Game Overview
Jeremy Stephens returns to the UFC to face Mason Jones in a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Figueiredo. Stephens has a competitive track record in MMA and additional experience in boxing and bare-knuckle fighting, while Jones is favored due to his recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jeremy Stephens has had varied success across MMA, boxing, and bare-knuckle fighting. Mason Jones is entering with strong momentum.
- This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
- No specific injury reports for either fighter are mentioned.
- The event takes place in Des Moines, which might favor Stephens due to potential crowd support.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, with Stephens seeking a strong comeback in the UFC and Jones looking to maintain his winning streak.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stephens: +425, Jones: -575 | Mason Jones | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Stephens: 3.5 +180, Jones: -3.5 -250 | Mason Jones to win by decision or finish | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -135 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mason Jones -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mason Jones is predicted to win due to his strong current form and favorable odds.
Predicted Score: Mason Jones by TKO/KO in the second round