Match Analysis: Bolaji Oki vs Mason Jones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 8:15 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
The lightweight MMA bout pits Bolaji Oki (10-2) against Mason Jones (16-2-0, 1 NC) at UFC Paris. Both fighters are orthodox, similar height and weight, with Jones slightly longer reach. Oki is known for a higher volume and accuracy of significant strikes, while Jones has a solid finishing record and recent strong form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bolaji Oki lands 7.05 significant strikes/min at 45% accuracy but absorbs 4.76 strikes/min with 62% defense. Mason Jones lands fewer strikes at 5.56/min with 41% accuracy and defends only 48%. Jones shows better recent finishing ability and more UFC experience overall.
- No known previous fight between Bolaji Oki and Mason Jones.
- No current reported injuries for either fighter leading into the September 6 bout.
- The fight is held at UFC Paris, potentially favoring both evenly with no strong home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated to advance their UFC standings.
- Jones is in prime career form after returning from Cage Warriors with multiple finishes and a dominant UFC win. Oki, though a rising talent, has close UFC decision wins and a first round submission loss versus a higher-level opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bolaji Oki: +114, Mason Jones: -135 | Mason Jones | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Bolaji Oki +3.5: -180, Mason Jones -3.5: +130 | Mason Jones -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mason Jones -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mason Jones to win by decision
Predicted Score: Mason Jones wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds