Match Analysis: Marquel Mederos vs Mark Choinski – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-07
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

Game Overview

MarQuel Mederos, a rising lightweight prospect, faces undefeated newcomer Mark Choinski at UFC 316. Mederos, known for his aggressive striking style, is coming off a recent UFC debut year and aims to capitalize on his experience. Choinski, with a strong wrestling background, looks to utilize his grappling skills to counter Mederos' pressure.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mederos has shown promising results with his high-volume striking, but often struggles with energy expenditure in later rounds. Choinski's wrestling could be a key factor in controlling Mederos.
• No previous head-to-head matchups between the fighters.
• Mederos recently experienced a late scratch due to illness but is now cleared to fight.
• The event is part of a stacked UFC card, which might not directly influence the fight but could impact fighter mentality.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Mederos seeking to build on his UFC experience and Choinski aiming to make a successful debut.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mederos: -202, Choinski: 172	MarQuel Mederos	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -185, Under 2.5: 143	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Marquel Mederos -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

MarQuel Mederos is favored to win, likely by decision, due to his ability to maintain a high volume of strikes and apply constant pressure.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for MarQuel Mederos

Match Analysis: Marquel Mederos vs Bolaji Oki – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Marquel Mederos faces Bolaji Oki at UFC Vegas 107 in a lightweight bout. Mederos, with a record of 10-1-0, enters the fight after a recent win, while Oki brings a 9-2-0 record. The fight is part of the preliminary card, offering a chance for both fighters to make a statement in the lightweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Marquel Mederos has a significant strike rate of 3.75 per minute, while Bolaji Oki lands 5.63 significant strikes per minute. Mederos defends 62% of strikes, and Oki defends 63%.
• This is the first fight between the two competitors.
• Marquel Mederos had a recent change of plans, originally scheduled to fight Bolaji Oki, but an injury forced him to withdraw; however, he is now scheduled to face Nazim Sadykhov instead, indicating some possible health issues.
• Venue familiarity could play a role as both fighters compete at UFC Apex, but neither has a notable home advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a win and climb the rankings in their division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Marquel Mederos +143, Bolaji Oki -180	Bolaji Oki is favored to win due to his higher strike output.	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Bolaji Oki -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bolaji Oki at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given the recent development where Marquel Mederos is actually facing a different opponent, the prediction for this specific matchup is uncertain. However, based on initial data, Bolaji Oki's higher strike rate and slight defensive advantage could give him an edge.

Predicted Score: Given the nature of MMA, predicting a specific score is challenging. However, Bolaji Oki's aggressive style might lead to a stoppage or a dominant decision win.

Match Analysis: Marquel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-29
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Mexico

Game Overview

Marquel Mederos faces Austin Hubbard in a lightweight bout at UFC Mexico, where Mederos, known for his explosive striking and speed, is favored over the more experienced but inconsistent Hubbard.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mederos has a strong record of 9-1 with recent success, showcasing dynamic striking. Hubbard, with a 16-8 record, brings experience but inconsistency, having gone 1-2 in his last three UFC bouts.
• This fight marks the first meeting between Mederos and Hubbard.
• Mederos was previously injured and out for over a year but has since recovered. There are no recent reports of injuries affecting either fighter significantly.
• The high elevation of Mexico City could impact both fighters, but Mederos may have an advantage due to better cardio preparation.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Mederos looking to establish himself as a rising star and Hubbard aiming to revive his UFC career.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-170 for Marquel Mederos, +142 for Austin Hubbard	Marquel Mederos	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	-3.5 for Marquel Mederos, 3.5 for Austin Hubbard	Marquel Mederos	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 rounds: -298, Under 2.5 rounds: +220	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 80%

Predicted Outcome

Marquel Mederos to win by decision or late TKO.

Predicted Score: 30-27 decision win for Mederos