Match Analysis: Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC
Game Overview
Vancouver native Aiemann Zahabi, a rising force in the UFC bantamweight division, faces former interim title challenger Marlon 'Chito' Vera. Zahabi is on a six-fight win streak, showing significant improvement in striking defense and cardio. Vera is a durable, high-level action fighter known for his durability, volume, and dangerous submissions, but he is returning off a tough title-fight loss and possible physical toll. The odds reflect Zahabi as the favorite, but Vera's experience and finishing ability make this a compelling stylistic matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Zahabi is 6-0 in his last six—impressive for a 37-year-old; Vera is 3-3 in his last six, with losses coming against the division's elite. Zahabi lands more significant strikes per minute (4.42 to Vera's 4.27) and defends better (69% defense to Vera's 50%). Vera absorbs more strikes (5.37/minute to Zahabi's 4.13/minute), suggesting a defensively sound Zahabi could win exchanges[1].
- No prior H2H. Vera's edge is in big-fight experience; Zahabi's rising momentum and technical improvements are the counterpoint.
- No public injury reports for either fighter. Vera's long career and recent grueling bouts introduce some uncertainty.
- Zahabi fights in his home country, likely drawing crowd support. Vera has fought on big stages, so pressure is familiar.
- Zahabi seeks to prove he's an elite contender and finally break into the top 10; Vera needs to rebound impressively to stay relevant in the title picture.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Zahabi -122, Vera +102 | Aiemann Zahabi | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Zahabi +3.5 -230, Vera -3.5 +165 | Aiemann Zahabi +3.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds -375, Under 2.5 +270 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★☆☆☆ 45% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aiemann Zahabi 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 155% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 155% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 57.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Aiemann Zahabi, riding momentum and with a defensive edge, wins a competitive, high-paced striking battle. Vera's durability and finishing threat keep it close, but Zahabi's technical growth, cardio, and home crowd advantage are likely decisive.
Predicted Score: Aiemann Zahabi def. Marlon Vera by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)