Match Analysis: Mark Magsayo vs Jorge Mata Cuellar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, United States
Game Overview
Mark Magsayo is a clear favorite against Jorge Mata Cuellar in this 10-round Super Featherweight bout, based on market odds and recent form. Magsayo brings powerful striking and agility, while Cuellar offers a robust defense and strategic counter-punching.
Key Factors to Consider
- Magsayo has demonstrated superior offensive skills and knockout potential, maintaining an 83-84% win probability in bookmakers' eyes. Cuellar is more defensive and tactical but has less recent success against top opponents.
- No direct previous H2H recorded, but odds strongly favor Magsayo due to his track record and stylistic advantages.
- No reported injuries on either side, suggesting both fighters will be at full physical capacity.
- Fight at MGM Grand, known for high-profile events, likely motivates top performance. Both fighters expected to make weight successfully for the 135 lbs limit.
- Magsayo motivated to maintain dominance and possibly reclaim or retain title contention. Cuellar motivated to upset and gain recognition, but as underdog this adds pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mark Magsayo: -800, Jorge Mata Cuellar: 500 | Mark Magsayo | ★★★★☆ 84% |
| Spread | Mark Magsayo -2.5 rounds: -120, Jorge Mata Cuellar +2.5 rounds: +100 | Mark Magsayo -2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 76% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds: -200, Under 8.5 rounds: 153 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mark Magsayo -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 72% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mark Magsayo to win by knockout or decision under 9 rounds
Predicted Score: Magsayo wins by KO or decision before the 9th round