Match Analysis: Sebastien Di Franco vs Mark Ewen – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-26
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: PFL Europe Week 3 Event, Nantes, France

Game Overview

Sebastien Di Franco faces Mark Ewen in the PFL Europe 3 MMA bout. Mark Ewen enters as the strong favorite with moneyline odds around -310 to -345, indicating his superior recent form and experience. Sebastien Di Franco is the underdog at +230 to +240 odds but remains a dangerous competitor. The fight is expected to be competitive but with Ewen favored due to consistency and fight style advantages.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mark Ewen has shown solid recent form with consistent victories in the PFL circuit, while Sebastien Di Franco has had mixed results recently, affecting confidence and momentum.
• No recorded previous head-to-head matchups between the fighters, so styles and recent performances weigh more heavily.
• No current injury reports affecting either fighter leading into the bout, indicating both are likely at full strength.
• Event on home soil for PFL Europe, with both fighters accustomed to competing internationally; Mark Ewen's experience fighting in larger promotions likely psychologically advantageous.
• Mark Ewen has strong motivation to solidify his standing in PFL rankings due to his winning streak; Di Franco is motivated to upset the favorite but lacks recent signature wins.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mark Ewen: -310, Sebastien Di Franco: +240	Mark Ewen	★★★★☆ 78%
Spread	Mark Ewen -1.5 rounds: -140, Sebastien Di Franco +1.5 rounds: +110	Mark Ewen -1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mark Ewen 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mark Ewen at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mark Ewen to win via decision

Predicted Score: Mark Ewen wins by decision (3-0 rounds)

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Sebastien Di Franco vs. Mark Ewen Prediction	Mark Ewen Win	-310	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Darragh Kelly vs. Bakhtiyar Abdulaev Prediction	Darragh Kelly Win	-650	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Connor Hughes vs. Gino van Steenis Prediction	Connor Hughes Win	-290	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +105

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $41.05

Match Analysis: Mark Ewen vs Aleksandr Chizov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: The SSE Arena, Belfast, Northern Ireland

Game Overview

Mark Ewen, representing Scotland with a 100% finish rate in his wins, faces Latvia's Aleksandr Chizov in the PFL Europe 1: 2025 Regular Season main card. Ewen debuts in the tournament format, while Chizov brings a 10-3 professional record. The match promises high stakes and aggressive styles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mark Ewen enters with a 6-0 record and 100% finish rate, indicating a strong, aggressive style. Aleksandr Chizov, with a 10-3 record, brings experience and versatility, having faced a higher level of competition.
• No prior head-to-head encounters between the fighters have been documented.
• No injury reports have been found for either fighter ahead of this match.
• This is Ewen's debut in the PFL tournament format, which could add pressure, while Chizov may use his experience in international competition as an advantage.
• Ewen is motivated to make an impact in his PFL debut, while Chizov aims to leverage his experience to advance further in the tournament.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mark Ewen (-350), Aleksandr Chizov (+225)	Mark Ewen	High (75%)

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Mark Ewen -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Mark Ewen at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mark Ewen is the favorite according to odds and his undefeated, high-finish record. However, Chizov's experience and well-rounded skills could pose a significant challenge, making this a closer fight than the odds suggest. Ewen is predicted to win by stoppage, but Chizov's resilience may push the fight to later rounds.

Predicted Score: Mark Ewen by TKO/KO in Round 2