Match Analysis: Mariusz Mikolajewski vs Samir Selmi – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Manchester, Greater Manchester, England
Game Overview
The bout between Mariusz Mikolajewski and Samir Selmi is scheduled for June 28, 2025, at Cage Warriors 191 in Manchester. It is a welterweight MMA contest at 170 lbs featuring two competitive fighters looking to add a significant win to their records. Mikolajewski enters as the favorite with odds reflecting confidence in his capabilities, while Selmi poses a solid challenge, making this an anticipated clash in the division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mariusz Mikolajewski has shown consistent performance and is favored due to a stronger recent fight record and home advantage. Samir Selmi is competitive with solid MMA skills but is slightly underdog in this matchup based on current form and betting odds.
- No recorded prior head-to-head matchups exist between Mikolajewski and Selmi, making direct comparative data unavailable. This adds unpredictability to the outcome.
- There are no publicly reported injuries affecting either fighter ahead of this match, indicating both are expected to compete at full capacity.
- The fight takes place in Manchester, giving Mikolajewski a potential home crowd advantage. No other external factors such as weather or travel issues are reported that might influence the fight.
- Both fighters have strong motivation to cement their status in the welterweight division, with Mikolajewski defending his perceived home advantage and Selmi looking to upset the favorite on hostile ground.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mariusz Mikolajewski: -300, Samir Selmi: 250 | Mariusz Mikolajewski | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Mariusz Mikolajewski: -1.5, Samir Selmi: +1.5 | Mariusz Mikolajewski to win by more than 1.5 rounds or clear stoppage | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 rounds over, under: 1.5 rounds under | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mariusz Mikolajewski -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mariusz Mikolajewski at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mariusz Mikolajewski is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage due to slight physical and tactical advantages combined with home venue support.
Predicted Score: Mariusz Mikolajewski wins by decision (3-0 rounds) or late submission/KO in round 3