Match Analysis: Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Heavyweight MMA bout between Jhonata Diniz (9-1) and Mario Pinto (10-0) featuring two orthodox fighters of similar height and reach with contrasting striking accuracy and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Diniz has a strong 9-1 record with solid striking volume and defensive efficiency, landing 4.58 significant strikes per minute at 56% accuracy and defending 59% of incoming strikes. Pinto is undefeated at 10-0 with lower volume (3.67 strikes per minute) but much higher accuracy (71%), though he allows a higher rate of significant strikes against him (5.29 per minute) and a lower defensive rate of 51%. Pinto’s youth and perfect record indicate momentum, but Diniz’s defensive skill and experience suggest a tougher challenge than Pinto has faced to date.
• No direct history between Diniz and Pinto, making this a stylistic matchup based on striking efficiency and defense.
• No reported injuries or recent layoffs for either fighter, suggesting both are entering in peak condition.
• Fight at home for Diniz in Brazil could boost motivation and crowd energy, potentially influencing close moments. Both fighters have Orthodox stance and equal reach (79 inches).
• Diniz at 34 aiming to solidify status with a big win over an undefeated rising star. Pinto at 27 motivated to maintain perfect record and prove dominance at heavyweight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz: -135, Mario Pinto: +114	Jhonata Diniz	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jhonata Diniz -3.5: +110, Mario Pinto +3.5: -150	Jhonata Diniz -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -250, Under 1.5: +190	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jhonata Diniz 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 103%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 103% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 54.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Jhonata Diniz to win. Spread: Jhonata Diniz -3.5. Over/Under: Under 1.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Jhonata Diniz wins by KO/TKO in round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 11, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Under 1.5	190	103%
Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz Prediction	Over 2.5	-445	56%
Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino Prediction	Under 1.5	154	52%

Combined Odds: +802 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $180.43

Match Analysis: Austen Lane vs Mario Pinto – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Austen Lane faces Mario Pinto in a heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Lane has a record of 13-5, with all losses by knockout, while Pinto remains undefeated at 9-0.

Key Factors to Consider

• Austen Lane has significant knockout power with 11 of his 13 wins coming via KO/TKO. However, he has been knocked out in all five of his losses. Mario Pinto is undefeated with five wins by knockout, showcasing strong striking skills.
• This is the first meeting between Austen Lane and Mario Pinto.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, which may favor neither fighter significantly due to its neutral environment.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Lane seeking to continue his winning streak and Pinto aiming to maintain his undefeated record.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Austen Lane: +425, Mario Pinto: -600	Mario Pinto	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Austen Lane: +3.5 205, Mario Pinto: -3.5 -290	Mario Pinto	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -110, Under 1.5: -120	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mario Pinto is favored to win due to his undefeated record and strong striking skills.

Predicted Score: Mario Pinto wins by KO/TKO in the second round.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Andrea Lee vs. J.J. Aldrich Prediction	Over 2.5	2.5	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Prediction	Danny Barlow Win	-300	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Mario Pinto Win	-600	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -168

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $31.89