Match Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-25
- Time: 7:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC 321, Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
This is a bantamweight main card fight featuring the rising Umar Nurmagomedov, a dominant grappler with elite wrestling pedigree, against the surging Mario Bautista, who rides an eight-fight win streak thanks to improved striking and defensive grappling. Nurmagomedov is a heavy favorite due to pedigree, recent form, and perceived superior skill set.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nurmagomedov is undefeated in the UFC and widely regarded as a future champion. Bautista is in the best form of his career, recently defeating top-tier competition by decision. However, Nurmagomedov's pace, grappling, and control have overwhelmed all UFC opponents so far.
- These fighters have never met; Nurmagomedov has never lost. Bautista's recent wins have come against dangerous strikers and grapplers, but no one with Nurmagomedov's wrestling pedigree.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of this bout.
- Nurmagomedov fights out of Dagestan, known for elite wrestling and tight-knit training camps. The event is in Abu Dhabi, a neutral venue. Expectations and media pressure are high on Nurmagomedov.
- Nurmagomedov seeks to cement himself as a title contender. Bautista is motivated to break into the elite and prove he can hang at the top of the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Umar Nurmagomedov -625, Mario Bautista +455 | Umar Nurmagomedov | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 (-135), Mario Bautista +5.5 (100) | Umar Nurmagomedov -5.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-260), Under 2.5 (195) | Over 2.5 | ★★★★★ 90% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Umar Nurmagomedov -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 25% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nurmagomedov wins a dominant, methodical decision rooted in wrestling control, pace, and cage craft. Bautista’s defensive grappling is tested, but he struggles to keep it standing or mount consistent offense.
Predicted Score: Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)