Match Analysis: Marina Rodriguez vs Gillian Robertson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-03
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
Game Overview
Strawweight bout between No. 9-ranked Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) and No. 12 Gillian Robertson (15-8) at UFC Fight Night prelims. Rodriguez (1-4 in last 5) faces Robertson (5-1 in last 6), who thrives since returning to 115lbs in 2023.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rodriguez averages 4.64 significant strikes/min (46% accuracy) with 55% defense. Robertson lands 2.89/min (48% accuracy) with 56% defense. Rodriguez struggles against grapplers, while Robertson excels in ground control.
- First meeting between fighters.
- No reported injuries.
- Strawweight division is wide open; winner could enter title conversation. Rodriguez’s recent split-decision losses suggest judging trends may favor activity over control time.
- Robertson (-305 favorite) seeks sixth win in seven fights to secure Top 10 status. Rodriguez (+245 underdog) fights to avoid three-fight skid and career decline.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Robertson -305 / Rodriguez +245 | Robertson | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Robertson -3.5 (-120) / Rodriguez +3.5 (-110) | Robertson -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (-238) / Under 2.5 (+180) | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gillian Robertson -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Robertson by decision (70% confidence) via superior grappling control and Rodriguez’s declining takedown defense. Rodriguez’s striking edge unlikely to offset Robertson’s ground dominance over three rounds.
Predicted Score: Robertson by unanimous decision (29-28 x3)