Match Analysis: Marian Ziolkowski vs Marcin Held – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Szczecin, Poland
Game Overview
This is a lightweight bout (155 lbs) at KSW 112 featuring two experienced Polish MMA fighters. Marcin Held, ranked #105 in the lightweight division, faces Marian Ziolkowski, ranked #440 in the lightweight division. Held enters as the betting favorite despite Ziolkowski's competitive record in the KSW promotion.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marcin Held (30-10-0) demonstrates stronger recent form with a record of W-W-W-L-W in his last five fights, indicating consistent winning performance. Marian Ziolkowski (25-10-1, 1 NC) shows more volatility with a last five record of W-L-W-W-W, suggesting inconsistency despite recent victories. Held's significantly higher ranking (#105 vs #440) reflects superior overall performance and competition level.
- No previous direct matchup history is available between these fighters in the provided data. This represents a fresh encounter without historical data points.
- No injury information is available for either fighter from the provided search results.
- Both fighters compete in their home country (Poland) at a KSW event in Szczecin, potentially providing neutral ground rather than a home-field advantage for either competitor. The event is held at a consistent promotion (KSW) where both fighters have recent experience.
- Both fighters are competing in a major KSW card, with Held likely motivated to maintain his higher ranking status and recent winning streak. Ziolkowski may be motivated to secure a high-profile victory against a ranked opponent to elevate his ranking from #440.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marcin Held: -140 | Marian Ziolkowski: +100 | Marcin Held wins | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marcin Held 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Marcin Held at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marcin Held is predicted to win via the bookmakers' assessment and his superior ranking, recent form, and record. However, Ziolkowski presents value as an underdog with recent winning momentum. The bout has strong potential to reach decision given both fighters' fight histories and comparable experience levels.
Predicted Score: Marcin Held wins by Unanimous Decision (30-27 or 29-28 scorecards favoring Held across the majority of rounds, with Ziolkowski potentially securing one round through strong grappling or volume striking)