Match Analysis: Marian Ziolkowski vs Marcin Held – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: KSW 112
Game Overview
Marian Ziolkowski faces Marcin Held in a lightweight bout at KSW 112. Ziolkowski enters as the betting underdog despite carrying -138 odds at some books, while Held is favored at +105. This matchup features two experienced KSW competitors with contrasting recent trajectories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ziolkowski demonstrated knockout power in his most recent bout, securing a Round 2 TKO victory over Salahdine Parnasse on May 10, 2025, finishing at 8:54. This recent finish victory suggests strong current form and timing. Held's recent record and performance details are not clearly available in the provided data, limiting direct comparison.
- No prior head-to-head history is documented in the available information. This is a fresh matchup with no previous encounters to analyze.
- No injury information is available for either fighter in the provided data.
- Both fighters compete within the KSW organization, suggesting familiarity with the promotion's rules and environment. The event timing on November 15, 2025 is approximately 2 days away from the current date.
- Ziolkowski appears motivated following a recent knockout victory, potentially riding momentum. Held enters as the betting favorite, suggesting bookmakers view him as the stronger technical matchup or more experienced fighter at this stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ziolkowski +100 / Held -140 | Marian Ziolkowski Victory | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marian Ziolkowski 16% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Marian Ziolkowski at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marian Ziolkowski presents significant value as an underdog. His recent knockout finish demonstrates current offensive capability and timing, while Held's recent form remains unclear. At even money (+100), Ziolkowski offers attractive risk-reward for a fighter with demonstrable finishing power.
Predicted Score: Ziolkowski via TKO Round 2