Match Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio Silva – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Game Overview

Christian Leroy Duncan faces Marco Tulio Silva in a Middleweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 111. Duncan is a tall, switch-hitting striker with knockout power, while Silva is a resilient, high-volume striker with strong grappling defense. The fight is a clash of styles, with Duncan's aggression and Silva's durability and counter-striking.

Key Factors to Consider

• Duncan has shown marked improvement, finishing Eryk Anders in August with a dominant striking display. Silva is undefeated (14-1) and lands at a high rate (7.54 sig strikes/min) but has never faced a fighter with Duncan's reach and power. Duncan lands 4.83 sig strikes/min and defends 51% of strikes, while Silva defends 61% but absorbs more volume.
• No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in Las Vegas, neutral site. Both fighters are in their prime (Duncan 30, Silva 31). No weather or travel issues.
• Duncan is on a two-fight win streak and looking to break into the upper tier. Silva is undefeated in the UFC and motivated to maintain his record and climb the rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: 154, away: -185	Marco Tulio Silva	Not available
Spread	home: 3.5 -135, away: -3.5 100	Marco Tulio Silva -3.5	Not available
Over/under	over: 2.5 -125, under: 2.5 -105	Over 2.5	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Marco Tulio Silva -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 17%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Marco Tulio Silva wins by decision. Silva's high-volume striking and superior defense will neutralize Duncan's aggression over three rounds. Duncan's knockout power is a threat, but Silva's resilience and ability to absorb and return fire make him the safer pick for a decision victory.

Predicted Score: Marco Tulio Silva wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: Tresean Gore vs Marco Tulio Silva – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-12
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, USA

Game Overview

Tresean Gore, who has bounced back with two consecutive wins after a tough start in the UFC, faces Marco Tulio, a dominant middleweight with a notable knockout record and seeking his tenth win in a row. This match presents a challenging test for both fighters, with Tulio's power and Gore's newfound grappling skills setting the stage for an entertaining bout.

Key Factors to Consider

• Marco Tulio boasts an impressive record with nine knockout wins out of his thirteen victories. Tresean Gore has shown adaptability by incorporating wrestling into his offense, securing recent wins via submission.
• There is no head-to-head experience between these fighters.
• No notable injuries reported for either fighter.
• The fight's setting in Miami and the audience could influence both fighters, but Tulio's UFC debut success and momentum might give him an edge.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Tulio seeking to continue his winning streak and Gore aiming to upset a favored opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Marco Tulio Silva: -365, Tresean Gore: 300	Marco Tulio Silva	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 1.5: -135, Under 1.5: +105	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Marco Tulio Silva -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Marco Tulio is expected to win this matchup, likely securing a victory either by knockout or decision.

Predicted Score: Decision or Knockout/TKO in favor of Marco Tulio Silva