Match Analysis: Christian Leroy Duncan vs Marco Tulio Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
The MMA bout between Christian Leroy Duncan and Marco Tulio Silva at UFC Vegas 111 pits two skilled middleweights. Duncan has a 12-2 record and brings advantages in reach (79" arm span), height (6'2"), and clinch work, while Tulio is slightly shorter (6'0") with a 14-1 record and lands significantly more strikes per minute with a higher strike accuracy. Tulio is the more aggressive striker, but Duncan’s durability, movement, and defense could neutralize Tulio's offense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duncan has shown marked improvement after finishing Eryk Anders, relying on pressure and composure, landing 4.83 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy. Tulio, with a 14-1 record, lands 7.54 significant strikes per minute at 60% accuracy and defends 61% of strikes, showcasing effective offense and defense. Duncan's defense is slightly less efficient, allowing 2.94 significant strikes per minute compared to Tulio's 2.53.
- No prior head-to-head between Duncan and Tulio exists, meaning this bout is a fresh matchup with no direct historical data.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout.
- The fight takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral site favoring neither fighter geographically. No external disruptions or conditioning concerns have been reported.
- Duncan is motivated to leverage his experience and durable style to upset the favored Tulio, who seeks to maintain his winning momentum and capitalize on his striking volume and accuracy.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Christian Leroy Duncan: +154, Marco Tulio Silva: -185 | Christian Leroy Duncan upset win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Christian Leroy Duncan: 3.5 -135, Marco Tulio Silva: -3.5 100 | Marco Tulio Silva covers the spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -130, Under: 2.5 100 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marco Tulio Silva 36% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Marco Tulio Silva at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Christian Leroy Duncan is favored to win by a tactical decision or late finish by neutralizing Marco Tulio's striking aggression with superior clinch control and composure. Despite Tulio being the betting favorite, Duncan’s recent improvements and physical advantages suggest an upset win.
Predicted Score: Marco Tulio Silva lose by decision or late round finish; fight lasts 3 rounds (over 2.5 rounds) with Duncan winning narrowly