Match Analysis: Damon Wilson vs Márcio Barbosa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-27
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series
Game Overview
Featherweight division main card fight between Damon Wilson (9-2) and Márcio Barbosa (16-2) on Dana White's Contender Series.
Key Factors to Consider
- Márcio Barbosa holds a more extensive record with 16 wins and 2 losses compared to Damon Wilson's 9 wins and 2 losses. Barbosa has displayed consistent form in recent fights with odds movement favoring him as a clear favorite; Wilson is seen as an underdog but has competitive wins.
- No direct head-to-head data available; this is their first meeting.
- No reported injuries for either fighter going into this matchup.
- The fight is part of a high-stakes Dana White's Contender Series event, increasing motivation especially for Wilson who is the underdog and looking to prove himself for UFC recognition.
- Wilson likely has increased motivation as the underdog looking to capitalize on this showcase; Barbosa as the seasoned favorite carries pressure to deliver and maintain standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Damon Wilson: +265, Márcio Barbosa: -340 | Márcio Barbosa | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Márcio Barbosa -1.5 rounds: -120, Damon Wilson +1.5 rounds: +100 | Márcio Barbosa -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: +155, Under 1.5 rounds: -185 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Márcio Barbosa -11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Márcio Barbosa to win via moneyline and cover the spread, with the fight going under 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Márcio Barbosa wins by TKO in round 1