Match Analysis: Marcin Tybura vs Ante Delija – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 6:15 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Paris
Game Overview
Heavyweight UFC rematch between Poland's Marcin Tybura, a seasoned top-ten gatekeeper, and Croatia's Ante Delija, UFC newcomer and former PFL heavyweight champion. Both fighters have strong resumes; the bout carries high stakes for position and reputation in the division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tybur has a solid UFC record with a 27-9 career, showing durable and technical striking and grappling. Delija comes off dominant wins in PFL with first-round TKO victories and limited UFC experience but strong momentum as a rising prospect.
- This matchup is a rematch; prior fight details are limited, but betting markets view it as extremely close, with Delija slightly favored due to recent dominant form and youth advantage.
- No notable recent injuries reported for either fighter. Both appear healthy heading into the fight.
- Fight is in Paris, neutral venue; no significant travel or altitude disadvantages. Delija’s UFC debut brings freshness, while Tybura aims to defend ranking status.
- Delija highly motivated to establish himself in UFC with a statement win. Tybura motivated to retain top-ten gatekeeper status and avoid being passed by newcomers.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ante Delija: -112, Marcin Tybura: -108 | Ante Delija | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Ante Delija +3.5: -205, Marcin Tybura -3.5: +150 | Ante Delija +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -135 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ante Delija -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ante Delija moneyline win
Predicted Score: Ante Delija wins by decision or late TKO in round 3