Jim Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Jim Crute vs Marcin Prachnio – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-07-19
  • Time: 2:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Game Overview

Jimmy Crute faces Marcin Prachnio in a Light Heavyweight bout at UFC 318. Crute holds a younger profile with a record of 12-4-2, while Prachnio is the more experienced 37-year-old with a 17-8-0 record. Both fighters have comparable reach and weight, and similar striking accuracy, but Prachnio is slightly more active in significant strikes landed per minute.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Crute has shown strong all-around skills with good striking accuracy (53%) and solid defense (42% strikes blocked). Prachnio lands more significant strikes per minute (5.57) and is a slightly better defender (54% strikes blocked). Crute’s recent form includes a majority draw in his previous fight, suggesting slight volatility. Prachnio has a longer career but may be impacted by age.
  • No prior head-to-head fights reported between Crute and Prachnio.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter going into this bout.
  • The fight takes place at a neutral venue in New Orleans, which likely has no significant home advantage. Both fighters appear motivated by career advancement at UFC 318.
  • Crute aims to rebound and improve after a recent draw, while Prachnio looks to capitalize on experience to extend his win record. Crute is younger, potentially giving him physical advantages in endurance and recovery.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Crute -325, Prachnio +260 Jim Crute ★★★★☆ 74%
Spread Crute -3.5 -195, Prachnio +3.5 +140 Jim Crute -3.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 rounds +124, Under 2.5 rounds -160 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Jim Crute -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jimmy Crute to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jim Crute wins by decision, 3 rounds


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