Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:55 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

The main event at Dana White’s Contender Series Season 9 Week 7 features undefeated Croatian Dani Barbir (7-0) taking on Lithuanian Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1). Both middleweights are known for striking with finishing capabilities. Barbir has proven championship pedigree regionally but withdrew from a recent fight due to injury, raising minor concerns. Kondratavicius, meanwhile, is on a two-fight win streak and boasts a kickboxing background, giving him an edge in striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three five-minute rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbir is undefeated at 7-0 with a strong regional championship background, but has a recent withdrawal due to injury. Kondratavicius has a 7-1 record with four KOs and recently won two straight fights, including a quick stoppage in March 2025, highlighting his finishing ability and experience against durable opponents.
• No prior head-to-head matchup between these fighters.
• Barbir withdrew from a May 2025 bout against Piotr Strus due to injury, causing some question marks about his current physical state. Kondratavicius has no disclosed recent injuries and appears fight-ready.
• The bout takes place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral site but a high-pressure environment with a UFC contract on the line, adding motivation. Barbir fights near home in Croatia regionally but is facing a distinctly higher level here.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to secure a UFC contract. Barbir tries to maintain his perfect record and capitalize on his championship pedigree, while Kondratavicius aims to spoil the undefeated run and build his resume with a high-profile KO/TKO win.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: +113	Mantas Kondratavicius	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: +250, Dani Barbir +1.5: -300	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: +157, Under 1.5 rounds: -180	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dani Barbir 11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius to win by KO/TKO

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins via KO/TKO Round 1-2

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Jair de Oliveira vs. Rafael Tobias Prediction	Rafael Tobias Win	-390	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Sofia Montenegro vs. Jeisla Chaves Prediction	Sofia Montenegro Win	-188	★★★★☆ 74% (74%)
Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Dani Barbir Prediction	Mantas Kondratavicius Win	113	★★★☆☆ 68% (68%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +310

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $81.99

Match Analysis: Michael Tchamou vs Mantas Kondratavicius – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-14
• Time: 8:30 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England

Game Overview

This MMA match between Michael Tchamou and Mantas Kondratavicius is part of the Cage Warriors event. The fight is scheduled for the middleweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mantas Kondratavicius is favored, indicating a perceived advantage in recent performances or skillset. Michael Tchamou, however, may have underdog potential.
• There is no recorded head-to-head data available for these fighters, making it a first-time matchup.
• No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The event's location in Manchester could influence crowd support, potentially favoring neither fighter specifically since both are not local favorites.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, given the opportunity to compete in a prominent event like Cage Warriors.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mantas Kondratavicius: -150, Michael Tchamou: 115	Mantas Kondratavicius	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius is expected to win due to being the favorite.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Mantas Kondratavicius