Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:55 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

The middleweight matchup between undefeated Dani Barbir (7-0 MMA) and Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1 MMA) is the main event of Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are skilled strikers, with Barbir known for his submission skills and Kondratavicius for his striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Kondratavicius is currently on a two-fight winning streak and looks to hand Barbir his first professional loss, which could significantly boost his career prospects.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbir remains undefeated with a strong regional championship defense in Croatia, showing solid grappling via submissions. Kondratavicius has a solid recent form (4-1 last five fights) highlighted by a quick knockout in March 2025, demonstrating power striking and clinch effectiveness.
• No previous head-to-head fights between Dani Barbir and Mantas Kondratavicius have been recorded.
• Barbir withdrew from a previous fight in May 2025 due to injury, but no current injury concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral site. Both fighters motivated by the prospect of securing a UFC contract. Barbir's untested chin and cardio, along with Kondratavicius' lone loss experience, are notable external considerations impacting mental and physical readiness.
• Barbir is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and potentially earn a UFC contract, while Kondratavicius looks to build his resume and break Barbir's undefeated streak, increasing his own chances for UFC promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: 113	Mantas Kondratavicius to win	★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: Unavailable, Dani Barbir +1.5: Unavailable	Mantas Kondratavicius by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 157, Under 1.5: -180	Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end in early rounds)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dani Barbir 19%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius is predicted to win by KO/TKO, leveraging his superior striking variety and clinch work to exploit Barbir's tendency to absorb damage.

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 23, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Justice Torres vs. Javier Reyes Rugeles Prediction	Under 2.5	135	29%
Brahyan Zurcher vs. Murtazali Magomedov Prediction	Brahyan Zurcher	-140	28%
Mantas Kondratavicius vs. Dani Barbir Prediction	Dani Barbir	-133	19%

Combined Odds: +606 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $141.15

Match Analysis: Michael Tchamou vs Mantas Kondratavicius – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-14
• Time: 8:30 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, Greater Manchester, England

Game Overview

This MMA match between Michael Tchamou and Mantas Kondratavicius is part of the Cage Warriors event. The fight is scheduled for the middleweight division.

Key Factors to Consider

• Mantas Kondratavicius is favored, indicating a perceived advantage in recent performances or skillset. Michael Tchamou, however, may have underdog potential.
• There is no recorded head-to-head data available for these fighters, making it a first-time matchup.
• No recent injury reports are available for either fighter.
• The event's location in Manchester could influence crowd support, potentially favoring neither fighter specifically since both are not local favorites.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, given the opportunity to compete in a prominent event like Cage Warriors.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Mantas Kondratavicius: -150, Michael Tchamou: 115	Mantas Kondratavicius	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius is expected to win due to being the favorite.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round finish in favor of Mantas Kondratavicius