Match Analysis: Valentina Shevchenko vs Manon Fiorot – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 3:45 AM UTC
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Game Overview
Valentina Shevchenko defends her UFC Women's Flyweight title against undefeated challenger Manon Fiorot in the co-main event of UFC 315. Shevchenko, a seasoned champion, returns after avenging her loss to Alexa Grasso, while Fiorot comes off a dominant win over Erin Blanchfield. The fight is highly anticipated, with both fighters bringing contrasting styles and strong resumes into the octagon.
Key Factors to Consider
- Shevchenko: 13-3-1 in UFC, recent avenging win over Grasso; Fiorot: 7-0 in UFC, dominant recent form.
- First meeting between these fighters.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Fiorot returns from a year-long hiatus; Shevchenko slightly older, more experienced; fight held in Montreal, potentially neutral crowd.
- Shevchenko feels disrespected and is fighting as the betting underdog. Fiorot is highly motivated to remain undefeated and claim the title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Manon Fiorot: -135, Valentina Shevchenko: 114 | Manon Fiorot (slight favorite) | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Manon Fiorot: -5.5 (165), Valentina Shevchenko: 5.5 (-225) | Valentina Shevchenko covers (due to close nature of fight and spread value) | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 4.5 (-315), Under: 4.5 (230) | Under 4.5 (value play, but fight could go the distance) | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Manon Fiorot 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 4.5 72% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Shevchenko's experience and championship pedigree give her a slight edge in a five-round war, but Fiorot’s youth, size, and undefeated run make her a formidable opponent. AI models and expert analysis suggest Shevchenko could win via KO/TKO, while Fiorot may have a path to victory by decision if she controls the pace. Given the odds and both fighters' recent form, this is a closely contested, high-level championship bout.
Predicted Score: Valentina Shevchenko def. Manon Fiorot via Split Decision (48-47, 48-47, 47-48)