Match Analysis: Cristian Pérez vs Manoel Sousa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-26
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Season 9, Week 3 (venue not explicitly stated)

Game Overview

Cristian Pérez (13-1) and Manoel Sousa (12-1) face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout on Dana White's Contender Series. Pérez is known for his dynamic striking and grappling versatility but has shown inconsistencies and cardio issues. Sousa is a powerful, physically imposing fighter with solid defensive skills and significant finishing ability, including multiple second-round finishes.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pérez is a fast starter with good submissions and striking variety but is prone to defensive lapses, exposed chin, and poor takedown defense. Sousa has more experience against high-level competition (LFA, Bellator, PFL) and is known for his pressure, knockout power, and grappling control, especially in grappling exchanges.
• This is their first meeting in MMA. Sousa holds a slight edge overall due to experience and fight style, which counters Pérez's versatility with better positional control and power.
• No reported injuries for either fighter going into the match.
• Pérez has not fought in almost two years and is coming off a loss in Karate Combat. Sousa is the fresher fighter with continuous MMA activity and experience against UFC-level opponents. Both fighters are highly motivated for UFC contracts.
• Both fighters seek to secure a UFC contract, making this a high-stakes, highly motivated matchup. Sousa’s more consistent recent performances and power give him a psychological edge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cristian Perez: +240, Manoel Sousa: -300	Manoel Sousa	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +175	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Manoel Sousa -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manoel Sousa at -8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manoel Sousa is favored to win by TKO in round three due to superior power, control in grappling exchanges, and defensive soundness. Pérez's versatility and explosiveness make it potentially competitive but Sousa’s strengths are expected to prevail.

Predicted Score: Sousa wins by TKO Round 3

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Cristian Pérez vs. Manoel Sousa Prediction	Manoel Sousa Win	-300	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Darion Abbey vs. Donte Johnson Prediction	Donte Johnson Win	-350	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Trent Miller vs. Ryan Gandra Prediction	Ryan Gandra -1.5	-150	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +186

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $57.14

Match Analysis: Manoel Sousa vs Lucas Barros – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Friday, March 28th, 2025
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: ASBAC Brasília, Brasília, Brazil

Game Overview

Manoel Sousa and Lucas Barros are set to compete in a lightweight bout at LFA 205. Manoel Sousa currently holds a record of 11-1, while Lucas Barros has a record of 8-2-1.

Key Factors to Consider

• Manoel Sousa has shown a strong performance with recent wins, including a KO victory over Tim Wilde, while Lucas Barros has been less active but holds a competitive record.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Manoel Sousa and Lucas Barros.
• No injury reports are available for either fighter at this time.
• The event takes place in Brazil, which might favor fighters familiar with the environment. However, both fighters are Brazilian, so this factor may not significantly influence the outcome.
• Both fighters are likely highly motivated, as this is a significant event in their careers, especially with the bout being part of a large MMA promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence

Predicted Outcome

Manoel Sousa is expected to win based on his recent performance and fighting style that has been successful against similar opponents.

Predicted Score: Manoel Sousa to win by decision or late-round stoppage.