Match Analysis: Louis Jourdain vs Magno Dias – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
This bantamweight contest at Dana White's Contender Series Week 8 features Louis Jourdain, riding a three-fight unbeaten streak, against Magno Dias, who enters with back-to-back first-round finishes. Both fighters are vying for a UFC contract.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louis Jourdain holds an 8-3 record with consistent recent wins primarily through striking and durability. Magno Dias, with a 6-1 record, boasts aggressive finishes but has less overall experience at this level.
- No previous recorded matchups between Jourdain and Dias exist, making this a stylistic matchup with limited direct comparison.
- No reported injuries for either fighter at the time of the fight.
- Fight held at UFC APEX provides a neutral venue; motivation is high for both as the winner secures a UFC contract. Jourdain’s experience in higher profile fights may provide an edge.
- Both fighters are highly motivated with UFC contracts on the line, but Jourdain’s recent success streak and fight IQ may better handle pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louis Jourdain: -185, Magno Dias: +160 | Louis Jourdain | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Louis Jourdain -1.5 Rounds: +120, Magno Dias +1.5 Rounds: -140 | Louis Jourdain -1.5 Rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 Rounds: -190, Under 1.5 Rounds: +165 | Over 1.5 Rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louis Jourdain -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louis Jourdain to win on moneyline and the fight to go over 1.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Louis Jourdain wins by decision or late finish after round 2