Match Analysis: Mads Burnell vs Robert Watley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bojangles Coliseum, Charlotte, North Carolina
Game Overview
The lightweight bout between Mads Burnell and Robert Watley at the PFL World Tournament Finals features two well-rounded fighters. Burnell holds a record of 20-7 with a balanced skill set including 9 submission wins and 10 decisions, while Watley boasts a 15-3 record with a strong knockout power evident in 5 KO/TKOs. The fight is pivotal for both with high stakes in the tournament final.
Key Factors to Consider
- Burnell's recent PFL record is 2-2, showing mixed results but strong submission proficiency. Watley has a 1-2 PFL record but has demonstrated more knockout power as well as consistent striking, which may challenge Burnell's grappling-oriented style.
- There is no prior fight recorded between Burnell and Watley, making this their first matchup, which adds uncertainty and raises tactical speculation based on style contrasts.
- No recent or reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout, allowing both to enter in optimal condition.
- The fight takes place at Bojangles Coliseum with a neutral crowd; broadcast coverage is extensive via ESPN in the U.S. and free streaming in several countries, implying no significant external distractions or travel disadvantages for either.
- Both fighters have strong motivation to win the PFL tournament final, with Burnell looking to redeem a mixed PFL season and Watley aiming to capitalize on his knockout potential to capture the title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mads Burnell: -170, Robert Watley: 130 | Mads Burnell | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | Mads Burnell -1.5: -110, Robert Watley +1.5: -110 | Mads Burnell to cover -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -120, Under 2.5 rounds: 100 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mads Burnell 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mads Burnell at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Burnell's superior submission skills and balanced record, combined with Watley's knockout power but comparatively fewer total fights, the prediction favors Mads Burnell to win by submission or decision with approximately 62% confidence. Watley's chance lies in landing a decisive KO early.
Predicted Score: Mads Burnell by submission in Round 2