Match Analysis: Ketlen Vieira vs Macy Chiasson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 31, 2025
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson are set to face off in a women's bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 107. Vieira is renowned for her pressure and grappling skills, while Chiasson is known for her high work rate and athleticism. Both fighters have shown durability, with Vieira having been finished only once and Chiasson twice. Vieira lands fewer strikes per minute but is the bigger puncher, while Chiasson is more active, landing 3.77 strikes per minute.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ketlen Vieira is a methodical fighter with strong grappling abilities, while Macy Chiasson is busier with a higher strike rate and better lateral movement.
- There is no prior head-to-head match between the two fighters.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight is taking place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which may favor neither fighter specifically.
- Both fighters are highly motivated to win, as each seeks to improve their ranking in the women's bantamweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ketlen Vieira: 100, Macy Chiasson: -120 | Macy Chiasson to win | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Spread | Ketlen Vieira: 3.5 -245, Macy Chiasson: -3.5 175 | Macy Chiasson to cover the spread | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -360, Under: 2.5 260 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Macy Chiasson 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 109% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 109% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 41.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the fighters' styles, Macy Chiasson's higher strike rate and better lateral movement could give her an edge, but Ketlen Vieira's grappling skills might slow Chiasson down over time.
Predicted Score: Macy Chiasson to win by decision or finish early if her athleticism allows her to evade Vieira's grappling.