Match Analysis: Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: October 25, 2025
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
The upcoming fight between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern is for the vacant women's strawweight title at UFC 321. Mackenzie Dern is favored due to her prolific submission skills, while Jandiroba excels in takedowns and grappling.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mackenzie Dern has a strong submission game with eight finishes, while Virna Jandiroba averages 4.57 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- No previous head-to-head matchups have been recorded between these fighters.
- No significant injuries have been reported.
- The fight being part of UFC 321 with a title at stake adds significant motivation for both fighters.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, competing for a title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mackenzie Dern: -148, Virna Jandiroba: 124 | Mackenzie Dern | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Mackenzie Dern: -5.5 105, Virna Jandiroba: 5.5 -145 | Mackenzie Dern | ★★★☆☆ 69% |
| Over/under | Over: 4.5 -125, Under: 4.5 -105 | Under 4.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mackenzie Dern -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 4.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 4.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mackenzie Dern to win by submission.
Predicted Score: Mackenzie Dern wins by submission in the 3rd round.