Match Analysis: Bogdan Grad vs Luke Riley – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: UFC Fight Night 265, Doha, Qatar
Game Overview
The match features Bogdan Grad facing off against Luke Riley at UFC Fight Night 265 in Doha, Qatar. Riley enters this bout with an undefeated 11-0 record, making his UFC debut after a successful Cage Warriors career. Grad, a more experienced UFC fighter with a 15-3 record, brings veteran status and notable striking power. The bout is expected to be highly competitive with both fighters known for aggressive striking.
Key Factors to Consider
- Luke Riley boasts an 11-0 undefeated record, having showcased dominant striking and cardio in Cage Warriors. Bogdan Grad is an experienced UFC fighter with a 15-3 record, known for power striking and resilience under pressure, but has suffered recent mixed results at UFC level.
- This is the first meeting between Bogdan Grad and Luke Riley with no prior head-to-head history.
- No reported recent injuries for either Bogdan Grad or Luke Riley ahead of the fight.
- The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, potentially favoring neither fighter directly but involving travel and acclimatization considerations. Weather and venue conditions are standardized for UFC events, limiting external impacts.
- Luke Riley is highly motivated making his UFC debut, eager to maintain his undefeated streak and establish himself among elite fighters. Bogdan Grad aims to assert UFC veteran dominance and avenge any setbacks, making this a high-stakes bout for both competitors.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bogdan Grad: +220, Luke Riley: -270 | Luke Riley | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Bogdan Grad: +5.5 (-105), Luke Riley: -5.5 (-130) | Luke Riley to cover -5.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5: -215, Under 1.5: +165 | Under 1.5 rounds ( Fight likely to last longer but without early finishes ) | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Luke Riley -15% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 72% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Luke Riley's undefeated record, youth, and momentum combined with Bogdan Grad's experience but recent inconsistencies, the prediction leans towards Luke Riley winning via decision or late stoppage.
Predicted Score: Luke Riley wins by unanimous decision or late round TKO