Match Analysis: Rafael Alves vs Luis Pena – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-31
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: N/A
Game Overview
Karate Combat 57 main card bout between lightweight veteran Rafael Alves and Luis 'Violent Bob Ross' Pena, two experienced fighters shifting from traditional MMA to Karate Combat rules.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alves has been favored in bookmaker odds across major platforms, suggesting superior recent form and market confidence. Pena, while experienced, is a consistent underdog in this matchup[1][2][3].
- No prior H2H meeting between Alves and Pena in MMA or Karate Combat, making this a fresh matchup.
- No reported injuries for either fighter at this time.
- Pena's past legal issues and inconsistent performances outside the cage may impact his focus, while Alves has shown continued activity and adaptability.
- Alves likely seeks to establish himself as a top contender in Karate Combat. Pena aims to rejuvenate his career after previous setbacks.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alves -400, Pena +300 | Alves | ★★★★☆ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael Alves -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rafael Alves at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rafael Alves dominates on the feet, exploiting the Karate Combat format to outpoint Luis Pena and cash as a moderate favorite.
Predicted Score: Alves by unanimous decision