Match Analysis: Jesus Santos Aguilar vs Luis Gurule – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Flyweight bout between aggressive striker Jesus Santos Aguilar and technically skilled wrestler Luis Gurule.

Key Factors to Consider

• Aguilar is known for forward pressure striking and KO power but has a weaker takedown defense. Gurule boasts strong wrestling skills and comparable striking, making him a balanced and resilient fighter.
• No recorded previous meetings between Aguilar and Gurule, making this a fresh matchup with no direct H2H data.
• No reported recent injuries for either fighter, both appear healthy and fight-ready.
• Fight is at a neutral venue with no significant altitude or climate issues. Both fighters are performing in their prime age range.
• Gurule (10-1) motivated to maintain near-perfect record; Aguilar (11-3) looking to rebound and prove knockout resilience after previous hard fight.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jesus Santos Aguilar: +170, Luis Gurule: -205	Luis Gurule	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Jesus Santos Aguilar +3.5: -125, Luis Gurule -3.5: -105	Luis Gurule -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -166, Under 2.5 rounds: +130	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Luis Gurule -11%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Luis Gurule to win by decision

Predicted Score: Luis Gurule wins via decision (3 rounds)

Match Analysis: Luis Gurule vs Ode Osbourne – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 12:40 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

This MMA match between Luis Gurule and Ode Osbourne will be part of UFC Vegas 105. Both fighters are looking to secure a significant victory in the flyweight division, with Gurule entering as a highly touted prospect and Osbourne seeking to elevate his standing in the UFC.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ode Osbourne has an overall record of 12-8-0 (1 NC), with significant striking but inconsistent results. Luis Gurule, currently undefeated at 10-0-0, has shown impressive wrestling and offense skills. His significant strike rate per minute is notably higher at 7.00 compared to Osbourne's 3.26.
• There is no prior head-to-head competition between these fighters, making this their first encounter.
• There are no reported injuries affecting this fight as of now.
• The UFC Apex's close quarters may favor Gurule's wrestling style, potentially neutralizing Osbourne's reach advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Gurule seeks to prove himself as a UFC prospect, while Osbourne aims to rebound from his recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Gurule -270, Osbourne +220	Gurule	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Gurule -5.5 -120, Osbourne 5.5 -110	Osbourne +5.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -130, Under 2.5 100	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Luis Gurule is predicted to win by decision due to his strong wrestling and higher significant strike rate.

Predicted Score: Gurule by Decision