Lucas Rocha vs. Stewart Nicoll Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-11
  • Time: 9:45 PM UTC
  • Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll face off in a highly competitive Flyweight UFC prelim bout, both with strong records and contrasting styles. Rocha is a younger fighter with a robust grappling base and defense weaknesses, while Nicoll is more accurate and defensively sound striker with a slight reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Lucas Rocha has a 17-2 record, landing 2.00 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but allowing 4.48 strikes per minute. Stewart Nicoll sports an 8-1 record, delivering 3.02 significant strikes per minute at 47% accuracy and allowing only 1.13, indicating superior striking efficiency and defense.
  • No previous head-to-head encounters between the two fighters; styles and statistics provide primary insight.
  • No reported injuries or recent complications for either fighter leading into the bout.
  • Fight takes place in Brazil, Lucas Rocha’s home country, possibly providing him with crowd support. Nicoll is fighting away from home, which may impact motivation slightly but also reduces pressure.
  • Rocha, at age 25 and entering his prime, has a strong motivation to maintain trajectory and capitalize on home advantage. Nicoll, experienced at 29 with a solid record, is likely motivated to prove himself on the UFC stage against a top contender on foreign soil.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Lucas Rocha: -118, Stewart Nicoll: -102 Stewart Nicoll ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Lucas Rocha -3.5: 105, Stewart Nicoll +3.5: -140 Stewart Nicoll +3.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5: 135, Under 2.5: -175 Under 2.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Stewart Nicoll -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -6%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Stewart Nicoll at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Stewart Nicoll to win via moneyline, covering the fight spread slightly by decision or late stoppage, with total strikes tending under 2.5 rounds

Predicted Score: Stewart Nicoll wins by unanimous decision or late round stoppage; fight ends before 3 rounds


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