Match Analysis: Michael Aswell vs Lucas Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 11, 2025
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell face off in a Featherweight bout at UFC Rio. Almeida, aged 34 with a record of 15-4-0, is up against Aswell, a 25-year-old with a 10-3-0 record. Aswell is known for his high strike rate, landing 9.10 significant strikes per minute compared to Almeida's 4.94. Almeida, however, has a significant height and reach advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Almeida has struggled recently, losing a split decision to Danny Silva after missing weight. Aswell, meanwhile, brings a strong striking game.
• No prior bouts between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries.
• Almeida fights closer to home, but Aswell's youth and aggression might offset this.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Aswell looking to prove himself in a new division and Almeida seeking redemption.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lucas Almeida: +114, Michael Aswell: -135	Michael Aswell	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Lucas Almeida: +3.5 -195, Michael Aswell: -3.5 140	Lucas Almeida +3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -175, Under 2.5: +135	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michael Aswell -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Michael Aswell at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Aswell is favored to win due to his superior striking statistics and youth.

Predicted Score: Not applicable in MMA scoring

Match Analysis: Danny Silva vs Lucas Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 10:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Danny Silva and Lucas Almeida face off in a featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Silva, from the US, has a strong record with 9 wins, while Almeida, from Brazil, boasts 15 wins. Both fighters have shown impressive skills in their recent matches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Danny Silva has a recent win via split decision against Joshua Culibao, showcasing his technical skills. Lucas Almeida won his last fight via unanimous decision against Timothy Cuamba, demonstrating his adaptability.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Danny Silva and Lucas Almeida.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which may favor Silva due to his familiarity with the venue. However, Almeida's experience in different environments could help him adapt.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Silva looking to extend his win streak and Almeida aiming to prove himself against a tough opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-220 for Danny Silva, 180 for Lucas Almeida	Danny Silva	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	-3.5 for Danny Silva (-135), 3.5 for Lucas Almeida (100)	Danny Silva	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5 (-215), Under 1.5 (175)	Over 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Danny Silva is favored to win due to his recent performance and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Danny Silva wins by decision.