Match Analysis: Michael Aswell vs Lucas Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Michael Aswell and Lucas Almeida face off at UFC Rio in a featherweight bout. Almeida is the more experienced fighter with a longer reach and higher age, while Aswell is younger and exhibits higher striking output. The fight will likely hinge on Aswell's volume striking and ability to avoid Almeida's counters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Almeida holds a 15-4 record with moderate striking accuracy (39%) and defense (44%). Aswell, younger at 25, has a 10-3 record with superior striking volume (9.1 significant strikes/min) and accuracy (44%), and better strike defense (54%). Almeida is more conservative but durable, Aswell more aggressive.
• No direct H2H matchups between Almeida and Aswell to date, so prediction is based on comparative statistical analysis and stylistic matchups.
• No reported injuries to either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight takes place in Brazil, Almeida’s home country, which might give him crowd support and motivation. Aswell is the younger fighter traveling internationally but maintains composure in high-pressure UFC events.
• Almeida seeks to consolidate his featherweight status with a high-profile win on home soil at UFC Rio. Aswell aims to build momentum as a young rising contender with a powerful striking style.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Lucas Almeida: +114, Michael Aswell: -135	Michael Aswell	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Lucas Almeida (+3.5): -195, Michael Aswell (-3.5): +140	Michael Aswell -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -175, Under 2.5 rounds: +135	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Lucas Almeida -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 34%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michael Aswell to win by decision

Predicted Score: Michael Aswell wins by unanimous decision after three rounds

Match Analysis: Danny Silva vs Lucas Almeida – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 10:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Danny Silva and Lucas Almeida face off in a featherweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Silva, from the US, has a strong record with 9 wins, while Almeida, from Brazil, boasts 15 wins. Both fighters have shown impressive skills in their recent matches.

Key Factors to Consider

• Danny Silva has a recent win via split decision against Joshua Culibao, showcasing his technical skills. Lucas Almeida won his last fight via unanimous decision against Timothy Cuamba, demonstrating his adaptability.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Danny Silva and Lucas Almeida.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which may favor Silva due to his familiarity with the venue. However, Almeida's experience in different environments could help him adapt.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Silva looking to extend his win streak and Almeida aiming to prove himself against a tough opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-220 for Danny Silva, 180 for Lucas Almeida	Danny Silva	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	-3.5 for Danny Silva (-135), 3.5 for Lucas Almeida (100)	Danny Silva	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5 (-215), Under 1.5 (175)	Over 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Danny Silva is favored to win due to his recent performance and home advantage.

Predicted Score: Danny Silva wins by decision.