Match Analysis: Michelle Montague vs Luana Carolina – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:50 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Fight Night 260, Perth, Western Australia

Game Overview

Michelle Montague faces Luana Carolina in a bantamweight contest at UFC Fight Night 260. Montague is undefeated (6-0), known for her wrestling and grappling pedigree, having transitioned from PFL and competing previously at featherweight. Carolina (11-4) is a striker with solid clinch skills and takedown defense. Both fighters present aggressive styles, but Montague is favored due to size, strength, and grappling superiority.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montague shows a well-rounded skill set blending aggressive striking with high-level wrestling and jiu-jitsu. Carolina is a powerful striker with awkward style and good clinch work, but less technical grappling expertise. Montague's ability to impose wrestling and pressure is expected to be decisive.
• No previous fights between Michelle Montague and Luana Carolina have been recorded, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the match.
• Montague's recent drop from featherweight to bantamweight could affect stamina and power but she has previously demonstrated ability to manage weight cuts. The fight location in Perth may favor both fighters equally with no clear home advantage.
• Montague is motivated to continue her undefeated streak and establish herself as a top contender in UFC bantamweight. Carolina aims to leverage striking and clinch skills to upset a highly touted prospect.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Michelle Montague: -230, Luana Carolina: 190	Michelle Montague	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Montague -1.5 rounds / Carolina +1.5 rounds	Montague -1.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	over 2.5 rounds: -150, under 2.5 rounds: 126	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Michelle Montague -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 36%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Michelle Montague is predicted to win by decision or late round stoppage leveraging superior wrestling and grappling control to neutralize Carolina's striking threat.

Predicted Score: Michelle Montague wins by unanimous decision or submission in Round 3

Match Analysis: Montana De La Rosa vs Luana Carolina – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Game Overview

Montana De La Rosa faces Luana Carolina in a flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Both fighters have recent wins, with De La Rosa defeating Andrea Lee and Carolina beating Lucie Pudilova. The fight is evenly matched, with Carolina favored slightly due to her recent form and Muay Thai background.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montana De La Rosa has a record of 13-9-1, while Luana Carolina stands at 11-4. Both fighters are experienced in the flyweight division, but Carolina's Muay Thai skills might give her an edge in striking.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Montana De La Rosa and Luana Carolina, making this a first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, which could favor neither fighter significantly due to its neutral environment.
• Both fighters are motivated by recent wins and the desire to climb the flyweight rankings.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Luana Carolina: -125, Montana De La Rosa: 105	Luana Carolina	★★★☆☆ 55%
Spread	Luana Carolina: -3.5 175, Montana De La Rosa: 3.5 -240	Montana De La Rosa +3.5	★★★☆☆ 52%
Over_under	Over: 2.5 -450, Under: 2.5 350	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Luana Carolina is favored to win due to her recent form and Muay Thai background.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Luana Carolina