Match Analysis: Luan Pedroso vs Diogo Sotero – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: LFA 221 Clark vs. Consuli
Game Overview
Luan Pedroso faces Diogo Sotero in a Bantamweight matchup at LFA 221. Both fighters are Brazilian, but Diogo Sotero is listed as the home fighter, likely benefiting from local support and crowd advantage. The fight is expected to be competitive, with both fighters showing balanced records and recent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Luan Pedroso is on a winning streak, but is fighting as a guest, which may impact his performance. Diogo Sotero has a short winning streak but is fighting at home, which could provide a psychological edge. Both fighters have similar KO, submission, and decision rates, indicating a well-matched contest.
- No previous head-to-head encounters between the two fighters.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Diogo Sotero is fighting at home, which may provide a moral advantage and possibly biased judging. Luan Pedroso is fighting as a guest, which could lead to additional pressure and possibly biased judging against him.
- Both fighters are motivated to win, but Diogo Sotero may have an extra edge due to fighting at home and the support of the local crowd.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -180, away: 155 | Diogo Sotero | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -180, away: 155 | Diogo Sotero | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | over: -135, under: 115 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diogo Sotero 53% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Diogo Sotero at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Diogo Sotero is predicted to win the fight, likely by decision or submission. The home advantage and moral pressure on Luan Pedroso are significant factors.
Predicted Score: Diogo Sotero wins by decision