Match Analysis: Luan Pedroso vs Diogo Sotero – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Brasilia, Brazil
Game Overview
Luan Pedroso (11-4) faces Diogo Sotero (16-6) in a bantamweight clash at LFA 221 in Brasilia, Brazil. Both fighters are accomplished strikers with black belts in Muay Thai and national titles. Pedroso is on a four-fight win streak, with his last loss in 2023, while Sotero is on a seven-fight win streak and hasn't lost since 2019. Sotero makes his LFA debut, while Pedroso is making his third appearance. The bout is expected to be a striking-heavy affair, with both fighters possessing high finishing rates and strong submission skills.
Key Factors to Consider
- Luan Pedroso has won four consecutive fights, all by decision or finish, and has not lost since 2023. He is a three-time national Muay Thai champion and brings a 5-2-4 record in KO/TKO, submission, and decision wins. Diogo Sotero is on a seven-fight win streak, with 13 wins in his last 15 bouts. He has an 87% finishing rate, with 6 KOs and 8 submissions. Sotero’s last loss was in 2019, and he is making his LFA debut.
- No previous fights between Pedroso and Sotero. Both are known for their striking and submission prowess, but their styles have not yet clashed in competition.
- No reported injuries for either fighter. Both are healthy and have competed recently.
- The fight takes place in Brasilia, Brazil, giving Pedroso a home advantage. However, Sotero is also Brazilian and may benefit from local support. The event is part of LFA 221, a high-profile regional card, which may add pressure to perform.
- Pedroso is looking to extend his win streak and establish himself as a top contender in the LFA bantamweight division. Sotero is motivated to make a strong debut and continue his winning streak on a bigger stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diogo Sotero: 155, Luan Pedroso: -180 | Diogo Sotero | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: -135, Under: 115 | Over | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Diogo Sotero 40% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 1.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Diogo Sotero at 40% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Diogo Sotero is favored to win by submission or decision. His higher finishing rate, longer win streak, and experience in high-pressure situations give him a slight edge. However, Pedroso’s home advantage and recent form make this a close contest. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Sotero edging out a decision or securing a late finish.
Predicted Score: Diogo Sotero wins by decision or submission in the later rounds.