Match Analysis: Saimon Oliveira vs Luan Lacerda – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-11
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

This bantamweight matchup at UFC Rio features Luan Lacerda (12-3) versus Saimon Oliveira (18-6), both orthodox fighters around 135 lbs with similar reach. Lacerda is the odds favorite at -250, displaying a higher significant strike rate but also absorbing more strikes. Oliveira is a seasoned fighter with decent defense and a slight edge in reach.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lacerda lands 4.52 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy but absorbs 7.07 per minute with 47% defense. Oliveira lands 2.67 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy, absorbing 4.13 with 46% defense. Oliveira’s experience (18-6) is broader but Lacerda’s recent form and efficiency suggest aggressiveness.
• No recorded previous fights between Lacerda and Oliveira, so no direct matchup data available.
• No reported injuries impacting either fighter leading into this bout.
• Fight location in Rio de Janeiro favors both Brazilian fighters equally; no notable external factors impacting performance.
• Both fighters motivated to climb rankings in bantamweight; Lacerda as a younger prospect aiming to capitalize on momentum, Oliveira seeking to leverage experience for possible career resurgence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Luan Lacerda: -250, Saimon Oliveira: +205	Luan Lacerda	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Luan Lacerda: -3.5 -180, Saimon Oliveira: +3.5 +130	Luan Lacerda -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -145, Under 1.5: +114	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Saimon Oliveira -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Luan Lacerda to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Luan Lacerda wins by unanimous decision or TKO in round 3