Match Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs Alexia Thainara – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-27
• Time: 11:05 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Perth, Australia

Game Overview

The UFC Strawweight bout between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara features a clash of contrasting styles: Loma’s precise Muay Thai striking and solid takedown defense against Alexia’s aggressive high-volume striking and relentless grappling. Loma, a Thai fighter (10-3), has a size disadvantage but brings technical consistency and scrambling ability. Alexia, a Brazilian striker (12-1) standing taller with longer reach, is coming off a first-round submission win over Molly McCann and carries strong momentum into the fight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Alexia Thainara exhibits a more aggressive striking approach, landing 6.73 strikes per minute but with a lower accuracy of 40%. Loma Lookboonmee relies on efficient, precise Muay Thai striking with solid defensive grappling and good fight pace control. Loma’s recent unanimous decision win over Istela Nunes showcases her technical prowess and control.
• This is the first meeting between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara, so no direct head-to-head data exists.
• No reported injuries to either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight is part of the UFC Perth prelims, with both fighters motivated to climb the Strawweight rankings. Loma is slightly disadvantaged by size but has home crowd energy and Muay Thai clinch expertise. Alexia faces pressure to maintain her winning streak and prove herself at higher competition levels.
• Loma Lookboonmee aims to extend her winning streak and improve her UFC Strawweight ranking, leveraging her technical skills and experience. Alexia Thainara looks to maintain momentum after a high-profile submission win and enter elite Strawweight contender status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Alexia Thainara: -245, Loma Lookboonmee: 202	Loma Lookboonmee win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds: -150, Alexia Thainara -1.5 rounds: +130	Loma Lookboonmee +1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -260, Under 2.5 rounds: 214	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Alexia Thainara 96%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Alexia Thainara at 96% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Despite being the underdog in betting odds, Loma Lookboonmee’s combination of technical striking, takedown defense, and fight IQ gives her a strong chance to outpoint Alexia Thainara, who fights aggressively but with less precision. The fight is expected to go to decision with Loma edging out a victory through superior control and defense.

Predicted Score: Loma Lookboonmee wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – September 27, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Brando Pericic vs. Elisha Ellison Prediction	Brando Pericic	-225	98%
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Alexia Thainara Prediction	Alexia Thainara	-245	96%
Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras Prediction	Under 2.5	140	44%

Combined Odds: +388 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $97.63

Match Analysis: Loma Lookboonmee vs Istela Nunes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 5, 2025
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Loma Lookboonmee and Istela Nunes face off in a women's strawweight bout at UFC Vegas 105. Lookboonmee is favored due to her UFC record and recent performances, while Nunes seeks to gain her first UFC win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Loma Lookboonmee has a strong record of 9-3-0 with significant grappling skills, landing 1.90 takedowns per three rounds. Istela Nunes, with a record of 6-5-0, struggles to secure wins in the UFC, going 0-4. Nunes's higher striking volume could be a factor.
• This is the first head-to-head matchup between Lookboonmee and Nunes.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• Lookboonmee's grappling advantage and Nunes's striking volume will be crucial in the bout. The fight's pace and stamina could influence the outcome.
• Both fighters are motivated for a win; however, Nunes may face additional pressure to secure her first UFC victory.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Loma Lookboonmee: -750, Istela Nunes: +550	Loma Lookboonmee	★★★★☆ 85%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -280, Under 2.5: +220	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Loma Lookboonmee to win by decision or submission.

Predicted Score: The fight is likely to go the distance with Lookboonmee winning by unanimous decision.