Match Analysis: Asha Roka vs Lishan Li – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-02
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Dubai, UAE
Game Overview
Women's Strawweight bout in Karate Combat KC 54, featuring Indian MMA fighter Asha Roka against Chinese kickboxing champion Li Lishan. Roka returns to Karate Combat after prior experience in ONE Championship, while Li represents China's striking pedigree in this hybrid karate-MMA ruleset.
Key Factors to Consider
- Li's documented kickboxing championship background suggests technical striking superiority, while Roka brings MMA experience from ONE Championship (prior to 2020). Recent performance data limited due to Roka's hiatus from major promotions until this return.
- No prior meeting records found. Li makes her organizational debut, while Roka returns after unspecified layoff.
- No injury reports available through public sources.
- Organization's hybrid karate ruleset (punches, knees, and standing submissions) may favor Li's kickboxing base. Event held in neutral territory (Dubai) with no clear home advantage.
- High stakes for Roka's comeback trail and Li's opportunity to establish credentials in new organization.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Asha Roka -165 | Lishan Li +125 | Value on Li Lishan at +125 (implied 44.4% probability vs estimated 50-55% actual chance). Conservative lean toward Li if odds remain above +120. | 65% in value prediction, 55% in outcome certainty |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Asha Roka 17% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Asha Roka at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Leans toward Li Lishan by decision (confidence: 55-60%) due to technical striking edge in stand-up focused ruleset, though Roka's untested grappling could surprise if she forces clinch situations.
Predicted Score: Li Lishan by split decision (29-28)