Match Analysis: Liam Wilson vs Ayrton Osmar Gimenez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-25
- Time: 10:00 AM UTC
- Location: Convention Centre, Cairns, Australia
Game Overview
This Lightweight division boxing match features Liam Wilson versus Ayrton Osmar Gimenez in a 10-round fight. Wilson holds a record of 15-3 with 8 KOs, while Gimenez boasts a 22-1 record with 4 KOs. The bout will take place at the Convention Centre in Cairns as part of the undercard for a larger boxing event.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wilson has a slightly less extensive professional record with fewer fights and rounds but has a strong knockout power at 53%. Gimenez is more experienced with more fights and rounds but a lower KO percentage of 18%. Both fighters use orthodox stances and have similar ages, with Wilson three years older and a 2-inch reach advantage.
- No direct head-to-head matches found between Liam Wilson and Ayrton Osmar Gimenez, making this their first competitive encounter.
- No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter ahead of the match.
- The fight is held in Australia, which is home turf for Liam Wilson, possibly providing him a home advantage. The event is an important step for Wilson to position himself for a rematch with Emanuel Navarrete, adding significance to his motivation.
- Wilson is highly motivated to win to become a mandatory challenger for Navarrete, which is a significant career opportunity. Gimenez, with a strong winning record, will also aim to continue his ascent in the Lightweight division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liam Wilson: -650, Ayrton Osmar Gimenez: 450 | Liam Wilson | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Liam Wilson -2.5 rounds: -110, Ayrton Osmar Gimenez +2.5 rounds: -110 | Liam Wilson -2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: -120, Under 7.5 rounds: 100 | Over 7.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liam Wilson -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Liam Wilson at -10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liam Wilson is favored to win by decision or late stoppage due to his power advantage and home venue edge. Gimenez's experience and greater number of fights make him a tough opponent, but Wilson's motivation and knockout capability tip the scales.
Predicted Score: Wilson wins by late-round TKO or unanimous decision after 8 to 10 rounds