Match Analysis: Liam Smith vs Aaron Mckenna – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-04-26
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Game Overview
Middleweight clash between Liam 'Beefy' Smith (33-4-1, 20 KOs), a seasoned former champion, and undefeated Irish prospect Aaron McKenna (19-0, 10 KOs) on the Eubank-Benn undercard. Smith seeks redemption after a 2023 loss to Eubank Jr., while McKenna aims to prove himself against elite competition.
Key Factors to Consider
- Smith has stopped 4 of his last 5 opponents but lost 2 of his last 5 fights. McKenna is 19-0 with recent 8-round sparring sessions against elite partners, showing preparation depth.
- First professional meeting. Smith holds experience edge with 38 fights vs McKenna's 19.
- No reported injuries. Smith last fought September 2023; McKenna's activity shows recent ring sharpness.
- Massive Eubank-Benn undercard platform increases pressure. McKenna's US training (Top Rank Gym) vs Smith's UK-based camp.
- McKenna calls this 'years of work coming to fruition.' Smith aims to avoid back-to-back losses and remain relevant in title picture.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | McKenna -155 | Smith +125 | Aaron McKenna | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | McKenna -2.5 rounds (hypothetical)* | McKenna covers | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 (-325) | Under 8.5 (+235) | Under 8.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Aaron Mckenna -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 84% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 84% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
McKenna by late stoppage (R9-10) due to superior activity and youth, though Smith's power remains dangerous early.
Predicted Score: McKenna via TKO/KO (Round 9)