Match Analysis: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-17
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago, Illinois

Game Overview

Lerone Murphy faces UFC debutant Aaron Pico in a featherweight co-main event at UFC 319. Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with a strong striking and grappling profile, whereas Pico has high finishing ability but with prior career losses and no UFC experience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Murphy is 8-0-1 in the UFC with high striking volume and accuracy, good takedown stats and defensive skills. Pico holds a 13-4 record but has not fought in UFC before and has shown vulnerability to being finished.
• This will be their first meeting with no prior head-to-head results available.
• No significant injury reports for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Murphy's UFC experience and home advantage of fighting in Chicago (close to his training base) contrast with Pico’s UFC debut, potentially adding pressure.
• Murphy aims to maintain his perfect UFC record and showcase consistency, while Pico is highly motivated to make a successful UFC debut, adding an element of unpredictability.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Aaron Pico -170, Lerone Murphy +142	Lerone Murphy	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Aaron Pico -3.5 120, Lerone Murphy +3.5 -165	Lerone Murphy +3.5	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -215, Under 2.5 165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aaron Pico 33%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 72%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 43.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Lerone Murphy to win via decision

Predicted Score: Murphy wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 6, 2025
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

Game Overview

The main event of UFC Fight Night pits Josh Emmett against Lerone Murphy, with both fighters vying for a climb up the featherweight rankings. Emmett, a former interim title challenger, is coming off a long layoff following a devastating knockout win. Murphy, undefeated, looks to extend his win streak and potentially secure a title shot.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lerone Murphy is on a seven-fight win streak, with notable victories over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige. Josh Emmett, despite his knockout power, has faced struggles, including losses to Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez.
• The two have no previous head-to-head matches, making this a fresh encounter with potential implications for the featherweight division.
• Josh Emmett's extended break was due to focusing on returning to full health, which could affect his performance but also indicates a more prepared fighter.
• The smaller UFC APEX Octagon could favor Emmett by limiting Murphy's movement, while Murphy's youth and reach advantage may counteract this.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Murphy aiming for a title shot and Emmett seeking redemption after his layoff.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Josh Emmett: +250, Lerone Murphy: -310	Lerone Murphy	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Lerone Murphy: -5.5 (-135), Josh Emmett: +5.5 (100)	Josh Emmett +5.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 4.5: -188, Under 4.5: +145	Over 4.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Lerone Murphy is likely to win based on his recent form and advantages in reach and age.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Lerone Murphy