Match Analysis: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-16
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: United Center, Chicago

Game Overview

The upcoming UFC 319 co-main event features a featherweight bout between Lerone Murphy, a top contender known for striking precision and experience, and debuting ex-Bellator star Aaron Pico, recognized for his explosive athleticism and wrestling pedigree. This fight is pivotal as Pico aims to make a strong first impression in the UFC against a seasoned opponent.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lerone Murphy has been a consistent featherweight contender with solid striking and effective fight IQ, boasting a strong recent UFC run. Aaron Pico, though a UFC newcomer, brings a high-level wrestling and explosive skill set that has made him a favorite among oddsmakers.
• This will be the first professional MMA meeting between Lerone Murphy and Aaron Pico.
• No notable injuries have been reported for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are at full health.
• The fight being in Chicago's United Center gives a neutral venue; however, the UFC 319 event on ESPN+ PPV may add performance pressure on Pico making his UFC debut.
• Pico is highly motivated to establish himself in the UFC with a debut victory, while Murphy aims to maintain his title contention status by defeating a high-profile newcomer.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Aaron Pico: -170, Lerone Murphy: 142	Aaron Pico	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Aaron Pico: -3.5 120, Lerone Murphy: +3.5 -165	Aaron Pico to win by more than 3.5 points (dominant performance)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -215, Under: 2.5 165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Aaron Pico -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 54%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 54% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aaron Pico is favored to win this bout due to his odds and high upside, with a prediction that he will secure a decision or late stoppage against Murphy, who will test him but likely fall short.

Predicted Score: Aaron Pico via decision or late stoppage in Round 3

Match Analysis: Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: April 6, 2025
• Time: 3:45 AM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX in Las Vegas

Game Overview

The main event of UFC Fight Night pits Josh Emmett against Lerone Murphy, with both fighters vying for a climb up the featherweight rankings. Emmett, a former interim title challenger, is coming off a long layoff following a devastating knockout win. Murphy, undefeated, looks to extend his win streak and potentially secure a title shot.

Key Factors to Consider

• Lerone Murphy is on a seven-fight win streak, with notable victories over Edson Barboza and Dan Ige. Josh Emmett, despite his knockout power, has faced struggles, including losses to Ilia Topuria and Yair Rodriguez.
• The two have no previous head-to-head matches, making this a fresh encounter with potential implications for the featherweight division.
• Josh Emmett's extended break was due to focusing on returning to full health, which could affect his performance but also indicates a more prepared fighter.
• The smaller UFC APEX Octagon could favor Emmett by limiting Murphy's movement, while Murphy's youth and reach advantage may counteract this.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Murphy aiming for a title shot and Emmett seeking redemption after his layoff.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Josh Emmett: +250, Lerone Murphy: -310	Lerone Murphy	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Lerone Murphy: -5.5 (-135), Josh Emmett: +5.5 (100)	Josh Emmett +5.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 4.5: -188, Under 4.5: +145	Over 4.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Lerone Murphy is likely to win based on his recent form and advantages in reach and age.

Predicted Score: Decision in favor of Lerone Murphy