Match Analysis: Joao Pedro Moreira vs Leonardo Cerboni – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Legacy Fighting Alliance
Game Overview
Joao Pedro Moreira faces Leonardo Cerboni in a bantamweight MMA bout. Moreira holds a strong record of 7-1 with a well-rounded skill set and recent momentum, while Cerboni stands at 6-1 with solid striking and grappling but less activity in recent months.
Key Factors to Consider
- Moreira is coming off multiple recent wins including a TKO in late 2024 and unanimous decision victories, showing consistent form. Cerboni’s last fight was a TKO win in November 2024 after a prior split decision loss in 2023.
- This appears to be their first professional matchup, with no direct H2H history available.
- No reported injuries or fitness concerns for either fighter at this time.
- The fight is held at a neutral venue within Legacy Fighting Alliance, with no significant home advantage or external distractions noted.
- Moreira seems highly motivated to maintain his upward trajectory in a competitive division, while Cerboni aims to rebound strongly from his 2023 loss and prove his consistency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joao Pedro Moreira: -350, Leonardo Cerboni: 275 | Joao Pedro Moreira | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Moreira -1.5: -115, Cerboni +1.5: -105 | Moreira -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: -110, Under 1.5 rounds: -120 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Joao Pedro Moreira -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Joao Pedro Moreira to win by decision
Predicted Score: Joao Pedro Moreira wins by unanimous decision in 3 rounds